International business in Bermuda and elsewhere is keeping an interested eye on the Island's political temperature and the possible outcomes of the December 18 general election.

A commentary in the UK-based Insurance Insider newsletter picks up on the emergence of the three-tier queuing system at LF Wade International airport as something that has irritated the business community because of the way it sifts out guest workers from residents and visitors.

Premier Ewart Brown is regarded as "unpredictable" by the business community at large, while UBP opposition leader Michael Dunkley is untried although "generally seen as being more sympathetic to commerce," according to the commentary.

The spectre of a push for independence is also raised in the article, which further notes the forethought of Robert Clements and Robert Newhouse when they set up insurance and reinsurance giants ACE and XL and chose to separate the firms' holding companies between Bermuda and Cayman Islands in the event of crisis at one of the two locations.

Regarding the emergence of three queues at the airport labelled for residents, visitors or guests, the newsletter says: "Although this example might seem insignificant, a number of the Island's ex-pats feel it is indicative of a cooling relationship with business."

One unnamed senior insurance figure is quoted as saying: "The thing about Ewart Brown is that he is obviously bright and aggressive, but he is also unpredictable. And what business dislikes more than anything else is unpredictability."

The newsletter reports that the feeling on the Island is that neither party is officially more pro-business than the other, but warns that a continuing squeeze on business or a serious bid for independence could "precipitate the first steps off the Island."

A second unnamed reinsurance sector commentator is quoted as saying: "All it takes is for two or three big company CEOs to agree 'enough is enough' and leave the Island and then you'll see a snowball effect of firms taking their business elsewhere.

"A relocation for the bigger firms will not significantly hit balance sheets and in any case, most companies have outsourced a lot of services and already have platforms elsewhere.

"Coupled with this is the fact that companies already have business continuity plans on a hurricane-prone island like Bermuda. Ultimately no one wants to be the last company to leave."