IF one is absolutely intent on starting a war, then one is better placed to do so if the world's attention is distracted. Perhaps this was on the mind of Preisdent Mikheil Saakashvili, leader of the Republic of Georgia, formerly a part of the old Soviet Union, now an independent state, when he ordered his military to take control of the province of Ossetia, nominally a part of the territory of Georgia, but who has hosted a separatist movement backed by the Russians.

Most of the world was focused on the Olympics held in China and some of the most important leaders of the world were attending the event such as President Bush and Prime Minister Putin of the United States and Russia, respectively.

But on the day the Olympics started, Georgia's military forces began their military offensive to reassert control over a very small part of its territory which has a population that is not much larger than Bermuda's.

But within this population lie the seeds of deep division and discord. In the breakaway province of South Ossetia live 70,000 Ossetians and 14,000 Georgians. There's no love lost between the two ethnic groups, with the Ossetians looking to Moscow for leadership while the minority Georgians clearly view themselves as falling under Tblisi's rule.

In fact the two ethnic groups fought a brief but bitter two-year war in the early 1990s. That is how the Russians got there because when the shooting stopped they went in as peace keepers. Ever since there has been a continuing low-level conflict between the two ethnic groups with the majority Ossetians wanting to break away from the control of Georgia.

The Russians have their own national interests in backing a separatist movement. Since the break-up of the old Soviet Union they have had problems with the former Soviet Republics some like Georgia and the vast Ukraine openly expressing their desire to become part of the European Community and to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, the West's collective military alliance.

This of course unsettles Russia, not wishing to see its former enemies setting up in its backyard in the area known as the Caucuses.

Such concerns about US encroachment into its traditional sphere of influence were also expressed by Russia when the Americans made it known that they hope to set up a missile defence system in Poland and the Czech Republic to counter the threat from potential nuclear-tipped missiles fired from the states of Iran and North Korea.

In this latest conflict there is even the danger that the Ukraine could get drawn in.

It already has had its problems with Russia with the latter cutting off energy supplies due to non-payment of bills. But when the Russians cut off natural gas supplies to the Ukraine, they also interrupted the flow of gas to Western Europe because the pipe lines carrying this important energy supply run through the Ukraine (Georgia too plays an important role in this transfer of gas coming from Russia to the West given a single pipe line running through Ossetia).

The port for Russia's Black Sea Naval fleet is in the Crimea, technically on Ukraine's territory. The naval base remains there through a mutual agreement between the two countries, but the Ukraine has hinted that it may not allow Russian ships back after military vessels sailed from there towards the conflict area.

If such an event were to take place than we can perhaps anticpate a wider conflict, one that may draw in larger powers such as NATO or the United States acting unilaterally.

The Americans, for their part, already have a toe-hold in the former Russian sphere of influence. American military trainers and American weapons systems are already in the Ukraine and within Georgia itself. Again, these developments have not been welcomed by the Russians and have remained a source of tension in this supposed era of peaceful international cooperation between nations.

Interestingly, when it comes to the possibility of a broader conflict history is replete with examples of wars involving smaller countries eventually spiralling out of control and drawing the bigger countries into large scale conflagrations.

For instance, World War One was sparked by the assassination of the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand, and his wife by a Serbian nationalist. This triggered an invasion of Serbia which eventually spread beyond the Balkans, leading to World War One. Likewise it was the German invasion of Poland which led to the worldwide 1939-45 conflict called World War Two.

Georgia may have counted on Western support in its conflict with Russia. Interestingly in his news conferences carried by major TV news networks, featured prominently among the flags seen behind the Georgian President was the European Community's.

The Georgians have now withdrawn their military forces from the disputed territory, calling on the Russians to agree to cease-fire terms brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Perhaps by the time you read this the guns may have fallen silent. But, on the other hand, the Russians may be pushing forward with longstanding plans to drive the Georgians out of both its territory of Ossetia and Abkhazia, which is another part of Georgia that hosts a Russian-backed separatist movement.

Despite the strong words coming from the Americans, I doubt if at this time they want to be involved in another major conflict, especially when its military commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan are judged to have stretched the American military as a whole.

The Russians for their part can counter objections to its policies in the Caucuses by pointing to American and European Community support of the seccession of Kosovo from Serbia, something which they objected to in their traditional Balkan sphere of influence."

But, still, despite the fact the key players involved are aware of the possibly catastrophic consequences of an eruption of a major conflict involving major powers, these localised events often take on lives of their own and therefore requires continued monitoring.