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What if it's a tie?

Voters in Smi's North were up early in 2003 to cast their ballots at Christ Church, Devonshire.

After a seven week election the last thing probably anyone will feel like is doing it all again - but that could be the nightmare scenario if the parties are tied after the votes are counted on Tuesday night.

While partisan party supporters are both confident their teams will pull off stunning wins others feel a draw is a realistic outcome.

The most recent independent poll, printed in the Bermuda Sun last week, shows the parties neck and neck with the UBP slightly ahead on 50 per cent compared to 48 per cent declaring support for the PLP.

And with an even number of seats - 36 - Bermuda might well experience constitutional gridlock if its an 18/18 split.

Indeed Trinidad and Tobago experienced exactly that scenario in 2001 when the governing UNC Party and the Opposition PNM Party gained 18 seats each. The two parties agreed to allow President Robinson to select the prime minister to end the impasse.

But when Robinson chose Patrick Manning of the Opposition PNM because of his "moral and spiritual values," the ousted Government angrily called for new elections but it went down to an emphatic defeat eight months later.

Shadow Attorney General John Barritt said he had pushed for an odd number of seats during the boundary revision before the 2003 election to help avoid the possibility of deadlock but had been over-ruled.

Mr. Barritt said in the event of an 18/18 tie the Governor would first have to go to Ewart Brown. "He had not lost, he could still try to govern."

But if Dr. Brown lost a confidence vote in the House the Governor would have to try the leader of the Opposition to see if he could form a Government.

However Mr. Barritt said the Governor might be tempted to turn to the leader whose party has won the highest level of the popular vote first. "It will be interesting to see which side can persuade a member of the other side to be Speaker."

Bermuda's Constitution states that the Governoer, acting in his discretion, should appoint as Premier the member of the House of Assembly who appears best able to command the confidence of the House.

If the House passes a no confidence motion the Governor shall revoke the Premier's appointment. The Constitution also gives the Governor the discretionary right to revoke the appointment of the Premier after the election and before the first sitting of the House if the Governor believes that in the new parliament the Premier will not be able to command the confidence of the majority of members.

Predicting a very tight election with a narrow UBP win former Clerk to the legislature John Gilbert said the Governor would have no choice but to call another election if the election resulted in deadlock.

He said the Government had to choose a Speaker from its own side who could not vote - meaning that the Government would be in a minority and would lose every vote.

And he said there would be massive problems even with a 19-17 majority as the Government could fall at any time if MPs in the majority failed to turn up to vote.

And he said a tiny majority gave the winning parties backbenchers an enormous amount of leverage

Mr Gilbert, who was clerk from 1976 to 1989, said the 'rebel five', formed by five UBP MPs in the 1990s came very close to bringing that Government down.

"If you get a rebel group the backbench can completely styme frontbench Government."

But Mr. Barritt said he didn't think a 19-17 majority was unworkable as even after the Speaker was elected there was still a majority of one. And he said Speakers could vote if there was a tie.

"The convention is the speaker votes to uphold the status quo."

Opposition MP Trevor Moniz said the parties would be desparately trying to get one or two switchers if the election resulted in a draw - maybe to take on the Speaker's post or even take a Cabinet post - to make Government tenable.

But it would be a big undertaking for any defector. "You have to live in the community. You are being a traitor to your party."

And then there would be a problem with electing a Deputy Speaker. "Then you are back to 17-17. And it is unlikely anyone would give up their political livelihood just to be Deputy Speaker."

It might be more realistic to offer one defector a job in the Cabinet and another defector the Speaker's post.

"But you have to be careful. If you take two people from the other side what is your own backbench going to think? You are going to have a very unhappy camp. You might not be in Government for very long."

Mr. Moniz said governing without a clear majority was common around the world. Germany is governed by a grand coalition of the centre-right Christian Democrats and the centre-left Social Democrats after an inconclusive general election in 2005.

However retiring PLP MP Jamahl Simmons is confident his party will pull off a comfortable victory meaning thoughts of a draw can be pushed aside.

But if the unthinkable happened? "It's easy, they will struggle along for a couple of weeks and then there will be another election."

Asked if election-fatigued voters could stomach another trip to the polling booth he said: "I think they would accept it but I don't think it is likely."

When asked about the possibility of a tied election Deputy Governor Mark Capes said he was confident the Bermuda Constitution was "suitably robust to provide a way forward".

He declined to comment further.