Shadow Education Minister Dr. Grant Gibbons last night asked 'what happened to the rest of the students' after Government reported an 80 percent graduation rate for 213 S4 pupils this summer.

The previous year, 2005-6, there were 309 S4 pupils enrolled in the Bermuda Public School System, with a reported pass rate of 58 percent. The figures reveal a drop in the number of students by a third over one year, with 96 less enrolled to take their Bermuda School Certificate.

At the same time, the results reveal a 30 percent jump in the graduation rate. Taking summer school into account, CedarBridge Academy reported a 76 percent pass rate for the 2006-7 school year and Berkeley Institute, 86 percent. Just six months ago however, an independent team of experts described Bermuda's public school system as "on the brink of meltdown".

UK professor David Hopkins and his team were drafted in to investigate why more than half of the Island's senior school students were failing to graduate.

The Hopkins Report called for "a rapid raising of standards", concluding that a quarter of lessons were taught inadequately, the curriculum was inconsistent and principals were failing to ensure quality teaching.

On Friday however, Education Minister Randy Horton said the 80 percent graduation rate was down to hard work by pupils and teachers combined with extra-curricular tutorials and study guides. He said: "I commend all of them (parents, students and teachers) for their collaborative effort in making the improvement. Steady progress is the sure way of ensuring a lifetime of success."

Yesterday Dr. Gibbons asked: "Why did the number, 213, of S4-enrolled students provided by the Minister drop by almost a third from the previous year's 309 students?

"Answers to Parliamentary questions about graduation rates in earlier years (1998 to 2003) show that the entry level class was consistently more than double the 213 students reported by the Minister. Why have the numbers of students dropped so significantly? "What happened to the rest of the students?"

"Is there – as suggested by others – a new method of calculating graduation rates in 2007 which the Minister has not shared with the public?"

Dr. Gibbons also pointed to an accompanying Government statement which revealed "cause for concern" in a quarter of the yardsticks for learning in the Terra Nova Test.

He said: "Why have graduation rates improved so dramatically in S4 when the 2007 Terra Nova results show that in roughly two-thirds of the areas tested (P3 through S2), the public schools have been ineffective in achieving even a full year of academic growth for their students — as benchmarked against the US norm? In the Minister's own words, the 2007 Terra Nova results 'reflect overall achievement...'."

On Friday, Mr. Horton reported participation in the 2007 Terra Nova Test at 97.8 percent but said 15 of the 24 areas used as yardsticks to measure growth in reading, languages and mathematics showed less than a full year of academic growth.

He added: "In six of the 15 areas there is cause for concern, further investigation and may require targeted interventions.

"As we all know, we are presently in the midst of implementation of a strategic plan based on the findings of a comprehensive and independent review (the Hopkins Report). "The Ministry on a whole, inclusive of the Interim Review Board and the CEO, expects to see a rise in those scores as we turn the review into tangible success."

Dr. Gibbons said last night: "Minister Horton has reported a dramatic increase in graduation rates in 2007 following a number of years where the rate was consistently around 50 percent and even as low as 26 percent in 2003.

"This is a positive development if these results are meaningful. However, the results raise a whole series of questions which the Minister has not adequately or credibly answered.

"These results also contrast markedly with the Terra Nova results, which in the Minister's own words 'reflect lower overall achievement…'.

"Although graduation rates and Terra Nova scores are different measurements of educational achievement, it does beg the question of why almost two-thirds of TN score areas are worse in the same year that our graduation rates are improving dramatically?

"Since none of the year-to-year changes that the Minister suggested involved any rigorous changes to curriculum or teaching methods but rather seem to have been basically voluntary options available to the students (such as 'free tutorials at lunchtime' or 'extended library hours' or 'final examination study guides') – how could they have had such a dramatic effect?

"Why weren't these rather simple changes implemented earlier, given the history of graduation rates?"

He added: "It's certainly better if 80 percent of those students left in S4 graduate, but shouldn't we care just as much about the number of students who are not graduating because they're dropping out after they turn 16?"

Dr. Gibbons accused Government of 'fudging' the figures. He said: "It's become a numbers game and often when something looks too good to be true, it is.

"The public have good reasons to question Government's credibility when it comes to the release of information. Most recently, it was apparent that the Department of Tourism had suppressed data that revealed a real decline in resort vs. business visitors, and it only became available after persistent questions from the media.

"It's time to have a serious look at an independent school inspectorate – separate from the Ministry of Education, that would be responsible not only for school performance evaluation but also making sure that school results were valid, consistent and complete for the benefit of parents and the public.

"Meaningful education reform is not possible without the rigorous assessment of student, teacher and school performance and the publication of results – but there is a clear conflict of interest in having one group responsible for setting, achieving and measuring educational standards."