A tsunami warning system could be established for Bermuda and the North Atlantic as early as next year.

Member states of UNESCO's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission are to set up a tsunami warning centre to better predict potential threats for the region. It would cover the North Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, North America and Central America.

The region is currently covered by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Pacific tsunami warning system, which has centres in Hawaii and Alaska. It forwards data such as earthquake magnitude, location and depth, and whether a tsunami has been generated.

Mark Guishard, director of the Bermuda Weather Service, said: "The current system works quite well. There was an earthquake in Martinique last year and we received the message here eight minutes later that there was no tsunami generated.

"But a regional tsunami warning centre will benefit the region in general. As a group of countries, we can take ownership of the initiatives taking place re: tsunamis in our region, as opposed to relying on a different region to warn us.

"There is extensive seismic and sea level measuring equipment already being used, so in the interests of keeping everything centralised we really should have a tsunami warning centre in the region."

Dr. Guishard has just returned from the third session of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions, held in Panama.

He said the institute to run the centre will be chosen at next year's conference in Martinique, but that it was likely to be located in the Caribbean or Central America.

Locally, the Bermuda Weather Service is responsible for issuing warnings of tsunamis and hurricanes to the general public, via the Police and the Emergency Measures Organisation.

"Weather centres around the world are suddenly being asked to take up the mantle of tsunami warning centres," said Dr. Guishard.

"If there was a silver lining to the Indian Ocean tsunami tragedy in December 2004, it is that it has heightened awareness globally about the threat of tsunamis and the need for warning systems to be put into effect, not only on an ocean-wide level but also on a local or regional level."

However, he said the threat of a tsunami hitting Bermuda was "extremely unlikely", due to the Island's unique topography.

Whereas a tsunami wave approaching a coastline will slow down and gain height with shallowing of the water on a continental shelf, Dr. Guishard said Bermuda's height would make such an impact and resulting devastation less likely.

"With the Island as a pedestal we don't have that sea floor shoaling which allows the wave to accumulate," he said.

"The predominant opinion is that Bermuda is likely to have some protection afforded it by the sea floor topography, so instead of having a continental shelf which allows waves to build as they approach the coastline, we are an isolated pedestal on which we could expect deep waves to be directed around."

However, Dr. Guishard said more research is needed on the Island into potential scenarios, but that this is presently being discussed with Government and the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences.

"We need to assess the threat of tsunamis to Bermuda," he said. "We need some form of higher resolution mapping of the sea floor surrounding the Island.

"The next stage would be to develop a computer model to use that ocean floor data to predict how waves will behave. Once a realistic assessment of tsunamis based on computer modelling is made, we can be in a much better position to assess what needs to be done."

Dr. Guishard said: "Should it be determined that we are at a higher risk, then the public needs to be prepared. They would need to know how to act and what to do, should a tsunami affect us."

There has been much speculation that a volcanic eruption on La Palma in the Canary Islands could cause a huge landslide, triggering a mega-tsunami across the Atlantic which would wipe out Bermuda and parts of the US east coast.

Dr. Guishard said: "It is a scenario that has not been fully explored, but it is an extreme case which is highly unlikely.

"We could draw parallels with the likely hit of an asteroid hitting the Earth. It's not something we really plan for, but at the same time it is not at the top of the list for public safety managers, as the likelihood is so low.

"Part of the idea behind a threat assessment, a modelling study for Bermuda, is to find out what would happen. But these are extreme cases that are very unlikely."

Dr. Guishard said the Emergency Measures Organisation has learned lessons from the false alarm on December 9, 2006, which triggered widespread panic in the West End. Police officers moved people out of their homes following rumours of a tidal wave approaching the Island.

"It was actually quite a learning experience having that scare," said Dr. Guishard. "There was a perception the waves breaking on the northern reefs actually looked like one big wave approaching the Island.

"That was not the case, but as a result of that incident we've learned a lot about how the public is likely to behave, and what the deficiencies in the early warning system are. We also learned about the ways in which people communicate information to each other."

After the incident Public Safety Minister David Burch blamed a "complete breakdown of communication" by Police for the chaotic evacuation of Dockyard and Somerset residents. He said Police failed to make contact with the Bermuda Weather Service as soon as they received information about the 'tsunami', and that once it was established as a false alarm, they failed to immediately stand down.

Since then new recommendations have been put in place, such as additional major incident training for all Police Operations (COMOPS) staff, including mock exercises.