Closure of the US Naval Air Station could be held up by Congressional powerbrokers until 1995-1996, a top Congressman said this week.

A two to three-year postponement of the closing of the Base, which would save Bermuda millions of dollars in takeover costs, could happen if the Base Closure Commission's power is extended to include foreign military bases.

It currently only has the power to recommend closure of domestic bases. Senior Congressman Charles Rose told Premier the Hon. Sir John Swan this week in Washington that Congressional control over all base closure decisions could be achieved if a Defence Bill clause passes.

The amendment to Bill FY94 was passed by the House Armed Services Committee last week and will go before a Senate/House Conference session, possibly by mid to late October.

The amendment was put forward by Congresswoman Pat Schroeder, who has been the main agent in the move to close the US Naval Air Station.

But in a twist, Mr. Rose -- a longtime ally of Bermuda -- said he supported the amendment. One source said if the Bermuda Base question went before the Base Closure Commission "we can stall this thing to 1995-1996.'' The Commission's 20-odd members are equally appointed by the Senate, the House of Representatives and the President.

It compiles a list of bases to be closed which goes to the President for final approval. The Commission reports every two years with its next report due in 1995.

*** The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 began the unravelling of Cold War military precepts that governed the world since 1945.

And, as the Soviet Union collapsed, Bermuda's military value has diminished.

The Base's primary function to patrol for Soviet submarines and help protect sea lanes disappeared as the Soviet fleet shut down.

General Colin Powell, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, did not mince words about the new situation for Bermuda when he told the Premier in mid-June there was no legitimate military reason to justify continuation of the Base.

But during the Premier's meetings in Brussels last week, NATO officials had a different, slightly encouraging view of Bermuda as a military venue.

NATO secretary general Dr. Manfred Woerner said he found it hard to look at a map of the Atlantic Ocean and conclude there was no military interest in Bermuda.

And a vice admiral told the Premier that Bermuda had military value -- only not at the present time. He foresaw the possibility of the Soviet-cum-Russian submarine fleet coming out again, and Third World countries buying submarines from the cash-strapped countries of the former East Bloc.

"Two to three of them in the Atlantic would be a great concern, particularly for US troop carrying ships,'' he said.

But these threats were not part of the immediate future. Rather, they were five, 10 or 15 years down the road.

The statements indicated the next few years are the critical gap if Bermuda is to hang onto the base and all the good things it does for the Island, such as running the Civil Air Terminal.

But it also indicates a happy ending for Bermuda would not be a happy result for western security.

*** Much has been made of Premier Swan's political contacts in Washington.

Politicians, civil servants and diplomats on both sides of the Atlantic say they're extensive. It's hard to say whether comments are genuine or political lip service to make the Premier look good back home.

But two incidents in Washington, one in June and the other on Tuesday, indicate the Premier's relations go far beyond the powerful line of Congressmen he already knows.

In June, the Premier, in a black limousine, arrived 20 minutes early at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue for his 4.20 meeting with President Bill Clinton.

Ten minutes later, still on the sidewalk, the Premier stirred uncomfortably.

The prospect of cancellation at the last minute would be a serious embarrassment.

At 4.15, White House guards asked the chauffeur to move the car back onto the Avenue.

At 4.20, his brow furrowed, Premier Swan picked up a telephone, dialled a number and said simply: "Make that call.'' Five minutes later, a harried Presidential aide rushed to the car and apologised. Ten minutes later, the Premier was in the Oval Office.

Sir John declined to say who he called in the car.

On Tuesday, an aide to Secretary of the Navy John Dalton cancelled the Premier's visit. The Secretary had been called to the White House unexpectedly. The aide suggested a meeting later in the week. Not possible, the Premier's people said.

Time was soon found and Mr. Dalton met with the Premier at 2 p.m. The sudden change, it was later learned, came about as result of a call to the secretary by an acknowledged friend of the Premier's namely General Colin Powell.

*** Her Majesty's civil servants like to keep a low profile in Bermuda. And in working on the Premier's trips abroad, they have not broken form.

But the fact is their work, and those of their colleagues abroad, have helped Bermuda significantly on the US Base issue.

Sir John Weston, UK ambassador to NATO, was an extremely able host in Brussels, providing the Premier with an excellent briefing, ushering him from meeting to meeting and hosting a luncheon with Canadian, American and UK military brass and diplomats at his elegant home.

UK diplomats arranged a significant day in London for the Premier during which he met the Prime Minister. From that meeting, Downing Street opened communications on the Base issue with the White House.

In Washington, the British embassy is lobbying key Congressmen on Bermuda's behalf.

Tying it all together from Bermuda was Deputy Governor Mr. John Kelly, who not surprisingly, has declined to comment on his role.

WORK IN PROGRESS -- Premier the Hon. Sir John Swan shakes the hand of Congressman Ron Dellumns, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, while Delegated Affairs Minister the Hon. Sir John Sharpe looks on. The meeting, which took place in a corridor outside the House of Representatives on Tuesday, led to Mr. Dellumns pledging to withdraw a legislative measure that could have shut down the US Naval Air Station three months after it passed.