"government in waiting''. It has to have seen Tuesday's results as approval of its optimism. Yet the PLP knows that by-elections are an uncertain barometer and are often used by voters to send a message to a government when they are not in danger of bringing that government down.

The UBP worked hard for Francis Furbert in Hamilton East and believed that if he did not win he would make the race close enough that, with boundary shifts in the new voter list, he could win a General Election. Now the once volatile and changeable Hamilton East constituency gives every appearance of being safe PLP seats. That must be causing a great deal of soul searching at UBP headquarters and may force the Government to close ranks and work.

BIU leader Derrick Burgess did extremely well, no matter how you view the vote. While it is difficult to count percentages in a two seat constituency when there is a one seat contest, Mr. Burgess has clearly bettered the PLP's 1993 win in Hamilton East.

When it was first formed as a result of a split in the PLP, it seemed that the National Liberal Party took votes from the PLP. That is no longer true since Mr. Burgess clearly picked up many of the 241 very personal votes cast for the NLP's Gilbert Darrell in 1993. Mr. Darrell had held the seat for the PLP and the NLP and was respected and popular.

The Pembroke West result is clouded by a low voter turn out. There is no doubt that the people were unhappy at being called to the polls twice in four months because of their representatives resigning from the House of Assembly. One UBP resignation was an annoyance but the second was seen as unnecessary and confusing.

The PLP's Rodney Smith, a strong moderate candidate, had two opportunities to campaign there and may soon have a third. The UBP on the other hand made an embarrassing muddle of a possible primary and gave the impression that it was divided and fighting with itself. That is never a good way to go to the voters. As a result there was a swing, but not a large percentage swing, to the PLP that may have been helped by Mr. Smith's two opportunities to campaign. The swing is a warning in a safe seat but it was not as great as we thought it might be.

The UBP received a sharp warning at the last General Election. It would have been wise to concentrate on unity and progress. The UBP did the exact opposite. It tore itself and the Country apart in an unnecessary Independence debate. It then had to seek a new leader and, in our view, wasted two years of the Saul Government divided over McDonald's. It had two Premiers, both with highly public difficulties, in a short time.

Thus it discouraged many of its hard-core supporters and party workers and gave the public the impression that it was no longer united. The UBP also failed to concentrate on finding new and attractive parliamentary candidates.

It is ironic but the public has been influenced by the mistakes more than it has been by the very healthy economy which has always been a UBP strong point, the high standard of living, the expansion of international business and the low level of inflation. Perhaps the people are now making the mistake of taking the strong economy for granted. The recent "people's budget'' and the Government's impressive performance at talks in London and Nassau do not seem to have attracted votes.

But, as they say, a day is a long time in politics and we suspect that the UBP will heed this warning if only because they have no other choice. Their first step will probably be an agreement not to go to the polls until the Autumn, thus allowing Premier Gordon to expand her base.