Hurricane Igor projected to pass near the Island this weekend
Stormy weather is predicted for Bermuda, with Hurricane Igor projected to pass near the Island over the coming weekend.
According to Bermuda Weather Service director Mark Guishard, the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Centre shows Igor moving "northwest towards the Island from its position in the tropical Atlantic, currently over 1100 nautical miles to the southeast".
Most long-range computer models, he said, predict that Hurricane Igor will pass near Bermuda over this coming weekend.
Last night Igor remained a Category Four hurricane, but forecasters expect the storm to weaken as it approached the Island.
"[It] is forecast to remain a major hurricane but is expected to show signs of weakening to a Category Three storm later in the week," Dr. Guishard said.
He added that it was worth noting that Igor is a large system, with tropical storm force (34 knots) winds "extending out to 150 nautical miles from its centre, and 12 foot seas at double that range".
Even if Igor passes hundreds of miles away from Bermuda it is likely to cause some effects locally, such as rough seas.
Igor is currently moving through the Western Atlantic due east of the leeward islands. At this point, the hurricane's predicted course has it skirting the Caribbean, but puts it on a seemingly direct line for Bermuda.
So far this season, two tropical storms and one hurricane have come close enough to cause watches and warnings to be posted for Bermuda. Cold fronts took care of the tropical storms, while Hurricane Danielle veered east of the Island.
Calling it "a year of near misses", Dr. Guishard added: "The overall steering pattern in the Atlantic seems to be causing recurvature of storms to occur near the Island, and could cause one of them to have greater impact than we have seen thus far."
He recalled 1999 and 2003 as years when a similar effect caused a number of storms to recurve.
"In 1999 we had a near miss with Hurricane Gert and of course, in 2003 we got a direct hit with Hurricane Fabian. The nature of these systems is that of unpredictability, hence the caution with which we treat them," he said.
Coming along behind Hurricane Igor is Tropical Storm Julia, was last night just off the coast of Africa near the Cape Verde Islands just over 1,300 nautical miles from Bermuda.
Dr. Guishard called it a much less intense system, with winds expected to reach Category One strength in the next couple of days before weakening back to a tropical storm by the weekend.
Julia's track is not predicted to come near Bermuda in the next several days, he said, but the storm "bears watching closely".
