Incumbent MPs are in jeopardy because of a newly drawn electoral map — but the boundary changes alone won't do much to change the overall balance of power, according to politicians from across the political spectrum.

Government MPs Patrice Minors, Dale Butler and Zane DeSilva have all been dealt tough hands by the Boundaries Commission's report, with traditional UBP support increasing in each of their patches.

But the report provides welcome boosts for new Progressive Labour Party MP Wayne Furbert and Sports Minister Glenn Blakeney, who see their marginal constituencies gain probable PLP support.

The UBP — which lost the last two elections 22-14 and has since lost five MPs, including three to Bermuda Democratic Alliance — had hoped the redrawing of the electoral map would offer a lifeline by shaking up traditionally solid PLP areas.

However, Deputy UBP Leader Trevor Moniz believes his party has fallen so far behind the PLP that its best bet is to reclaim the seats lost to defections and pick up one or two extras — meaning it would still lose 20-16.

According to a number of observers from across the political field, the new map means:

• Mrs. Minors' previously safe PLP seat in Smith's North is up for grabs for Opposition Senate leader Michael Dunkley after receiving an influx of likely UBP voters;

l Minister without Portfolio, Mr. DeSilva, will see his Southampton East Central seat lose traditional PLP voters to neighbouring Southampton West Central;

• One-time UBP leader Mr. Furbert could have saved his place in the House of Assembly by completing his walk across the floor — his Hamilton West seat now becomes a much stronger PLP area;

• Mr. Butler's Warwick North East seat loses a lot of traditional support and gains UBP voters from Hinson's Island, meaning the popular incumbent faces a fight to retain his place;

• Mr. Blakeney, a UBP target in Devonshire North Central, gains breathing space thanks to incoming PLP voters;

• Government Whip Lovitta Foggo's St. David's constituency loses about 200 people — both PLP and UBP — with BDA leader Craig Cannonier expected to try to take advantage;

• A big shake-up in St. George's South means all three parties are eying the seat currently held by Donte Hunt of the BDA;

• Charlie Swan's Southampton West Central constituency gains PLP voters, but probably not enough to put his spot in jeopardy.

Mrs. Minors, Mr. DeSilva, Mr. Furbert, Ms Foggo and Mr. Butler all told The Royal Gazette the boundary alterations will make no difference to the way they go about representing their constituents.

It is the first time the map has been redrawn since 36 single seat constituencies were created in 2003, and came after areas such as St. David's grew much faster than others. The Boundaries Commission report, which will need to be approved by the House and Senate, will mean each constituency is within 51 of the mean average of 1,277.

Under the old map, Mr. Moniz said Bermuda's race-based voting patterns meant the PLP had 18 safe seats against the UBP's ten, with eight marginals that could go either way.

Reflecting on the changes, the veteran politician looked ahead to the next election and said: "We might pick up a couple more. We've got a hard battle this time. We have got nine MPs — we have to got to pick up five that have defected. One or two on top of that: that would be my aim."

Mr. Moniz described the situation as "very frustrating", continuing: "Sometimes these swings last 20 years. Sometimes a new party forms out of it at some point."

BDA is polling to see where to place its candidates at its first election — and is expected to target newly created marginals such as Smith's North.

Mr. Moniz said a reunion between the two Opposition parties was not impossible but unlikely, pointing out some of his colleagues remain extremely bitter about last year's defections.

BDA chairman Michael Fahy said: "Given that we are a new party, the boundary changes certainly present an opportunity for us.

"There will now be constituencies which haven't already been solid PLP or UBP. It looks as if it's been mixed right up."

He said the BDA doesn't have a full slate of candidates yet but would be targeting areas where people are disenchanted with their current MP.

"It may come down to personality rather than party," he said, noting that established parties are no longer flavour of the month in other islands, Canada and the UK.

The PLP last night released a statement saying: "The recent report of the Boundaries Commission seeks to ensure that all electoral districts have a similar number of constituents as far as is practicable. We commend them for handling this important task.

"The PLP has always fought for one man, one vote, each vote of equal value. Periodic review by the Commission and subsequent adjustments help to achieve this goal.

"The report will be considered as we strategise to move Bermuda forward."