The Island’s contributory pension scheme faces an uncertain future, according to population figures released yesterday by the Department of Statistics.

Bermuda’s population is projected to age this decade, even with resident numbers projected to drop by four percent between 2010 and 2020.

The figures, released by the Department of Statistics, show the Island’s 2010 population of 64,129 falling to 61,566 by 2020, as a result of emigration exceeding immigration, and a declining birth rate.

Meanwhile, the proportion of seniors aged 65 and older is expected to rise from 14 percent in 2010, to 20 percent by 2020 — resulting in “fewer children, an older workforce and more elderly people”.

The median age of the population was 41 years in 2010 — but could climb to 46 years by 2010.

While the drop in population could reduce strain on the Island’s resources, the report warned that the expected decline may have a serious economic impact.

Because the number of pensioners is expected to outstrip the working population, “pay-as-you-go” pensions such as the Bermuda Government’s Contributory Pension Fund (CPF) could prove “problematic”.

“This is because the contributions that are paid into the fund in a given year by workers are generally paid out as benefits in the same year,” the report noted — quoting the Spending and Government Efficiency (SAGE) Commission description of the CPF’s present structure as heaping “ever-increasing” contribution fees on workers as “an untenable option”.

The total dependency ratio will rise from 43 in 2010 to 51 by 2010 — meaning that by the end of this decade, there will be 51 children and seniors for every 100 people of working age.

Meanwhile, life expectancy from birth is also projected to rise, from 79.9 years in 2010 to 82 years by 2020.

By the decade’s end, males are expected to live for 78.3 years while females are projected to live on average to the age of 86.