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We’re on the edge of a cliff, says Sir John

“Change needed”: Former Premier Sir John Swan

Bermuda is “at the edge of a cliff, about to fall over and still trying to decide if we’re going to call for help” when it comes to reviving its economy, according to former Premier John Swan.

“We’ve left everything too late — we’re a dollar too poor and a day too late,” Sir John told The Royal Gazette after calls by an outside marketing expert for a national dialogue on bolstering the Island’s population. “We’re the biggest procrastinators I have ever seen.”

Taking a sceptical line on signs of recovery, or the 2017 America’s Cup as an economic elixir, the business leader said Bermuda urgently had to get real about its “perilous” situation.

“This is the first time in history that we have not followed America, whose economy was tied to ours — they’re out of recession and we are not,” he said. “Our product has not lived up to what Americans expect. It’s as simple as that.”

Declaring himself “distraught” by the notion of the America’s Cup as a panacea, he insisted that the Island had to show sufficient viable activity to justify outside investment.

“There are structural changes that we need to make. Number one, we need to do away with the 60-40 rule, except for in real estate,” said Sir John, reiterating his dislike of the protectionist local ownership law. “We need to keep the capital for real estate in the country, while capital for goods and services flows in.”

In the aftermath of widespread industrial action over furlough days for civil service workers, Sir John said unions should be open to some form of trade-off with Government — such as accepting them for some staff, but sparing low-earning public workers.

“There could be some type of compromise between people who have basic salaries versus people who are on much more,” he said.

“Whatever action we take should be considerate and on an equitable basis, as opposed to a strictly across the board basis. These are the types of dialogue that, to me, are important, because something has got to be done. Even so, I don’t think a half-day or one-day furlough is the solution. It’s just one step in a series.”

His remarks came after Canadian market research CEO Don Mills told an audience of local business leaders that population decline and a loss of foreign workers was sapping Bermuda’s hopes of an economic comeback.

Sir John called it “an endorsement of what Larry Burchall and I have been saying — a wake-up call that has come from a foreign entity, since people weren’t listening to us”.

This was in reference to Mr Burchall’s economic analysis pointing to a population decline on the order of 7,000 people between 2008 and 2013.

“The surveys that Larry and myself promoted over the last four or five years showed that the population shrinking as a result of the birth rate dropping and the loss of the foreign population would eventually get to a stage where the job providers that contributed to so many areas will have been diminished considerably.

“The $64 question is what the fundamental changes should be, recognising that we are not a resources country in terms of raw materials or agriculture, but that we are a service economy.

“In other words, it’s what individuals do to provide an income for the country and the people living here.

“We need to recognise that, as the survey said, we succeeded when we had that level of economic activity as a result of services provided. That enhanced our economy for both the private and public sector.

“To do that now, we need, as the speaker said, an influx of people. But more importantly, we need an influx of products and an influx of capital.

“It’s taken us years to put in casinos. It’s almost irrelevant today. We’re doing the same with the protection of local business. It’s a virtual world with the internet, which allows people to shop overseas.

“We need to bring in companies and start to reduce the cost of goods in Bermuda, since it seems much harder to reduce the cost of labour. This is the only thing we can do now if we want to get Bermudians back in employment again.

“That’s going to start reducing our debt and pay for the services that the public has become accustomed to.”

Sir John said Bermuda’s difficulties were compounded by the stresses borne by local businesses — some of which shirked paying their commitments for employees, or in some cases were not paying rents.

“They are staying open on the basis that their position is being almost catered to by Government and some local landlords,” he said.

“If we put more pressure on them, chances are that more will simply go out of business.

“Our options have been reduced because we waited so long. When we tried to increase the payroll tax in international business, we know now what their reaction was — we had to roll that back. And events like the America’s Cup are being treated like a structural change for Bermuda. This event will come and go, but it won’t change the structure of the business of Bermuda.”

Sir John said the Island had to incentivise its system of trade to bring in goods that were “current, of high quality and reasonably priced” — but added that it was “almost too late to have a national dialogue”.

“You can march and demonstrate all you want, but at the end of the day you still have to pay your bills and educate your children,” he said.

“I feel sorry for people who are in a predicament, but I am quite happy to be vilified and criticised by the people who make noise and disagree. We’re looking at the world backwards, in the fact that what we should be doing, we are not doing — and what we are doing has got a lot of hype, but I just hope it has results that are going to sustain us.

“I don’t see the bottom yet. I see the consolidation of international business and the continued demise of our local business. I don’t see any trade businesses opening up; I see them closing.

“I see service providers like air conditioning companies and plumbing businesses shrinking. Bob Richards, our Finance Minister, has a monumental task. Everybody is saying they need money, and he has to say no.

“Anybody in that position would have to say the same thing. If you want it, you have got to help us get it first. That help can only come about by change. We need to have a product that doesn’t just get people coming here but gets them spending. Otherwise, we will have lost out.”