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HSBC expert: Latin America can produce double-digit investment returns over next decade

HSBC’s Pedro Bastos: Positive on Latin America

Latin America might be a good place to invest some of your money to get double-digit returns over the next decade.That is the view of HSBC’s Pedro Bastos, an expert on the region’s economy who was in Hamilton yesterday to give an investor presentation on Latin American prospects.The continent has been one of the world’s best-performing emerging markets over the past decade, but growth has slowed lately, particularly with a decline in commodities prices stemming from the economic slowdown in China.Last month the World Bank lowered its expectation for Latin American economic growth to three percent this year, strengthening to nearly four percent in 2013.The powerhouse of the Latin American economy is Brazil, whose stock market has risen strongly over the past decade, despite a slump in the past two years. Overall, Latin American indices have climbed 19.8 percent per annum over the past ten years.HSBC manages about $50 billion invested in the region, chiefly in five countries — Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru and Colombia. The global bank recommends steering clear of Venezuela and Argentina.Mr Bastos, HSBC’s CEO Global Asset Management, Brazil and Latin America, believes that Brazil has been laying the foundations for a return to strong and steady growth in the years ahead.“In the past seven years, the number of people living below the poverty line in Brazil has dropped by a half,” Mr Bastos said. “That is a result that doesn’t show in the short term in the GDP figures.“Unemployment is 5.4 percent, but it feels like full employment and people are consuming more goods and buying things like private education, healthcare and insurance.”Mr Bastos said the limiting factor to Brazilian growth was its lack of infrastructure — but a string of ongoing and future programmes were intended to rectify that.Around $65 billion was being spent on the railway network, which played a large role in getting Brazil’s soya bean crop to port, while another $20 billion had been earmarked for the road system.“The potential is there for Brazil to become one of the top five economies in the world, but a great effort is needed to build up the infrastructure,” Mr Bastos said.A fall in commodity prices would eventually reverse, providing a boost for Latin America’s commodity-rich economies, he anticipated.However, Latin American stock markets were not as dominated by commodity stocks as many assumed, Mr Bastos said, as domestic consumption stocks made up 51 percent of the market.Those investing in the region could expect an annualised market return of around 12.5 percent over the next ten years, Mr Bastos said, as GDP rose at a forecast 4.5 percent clip in the 2011-2017 period. The premium investors could earn from having the best fund managers was also greater than in economies such as the US, Europe and even China, providing investors with added potential for growth from managed funds.Demographics also support the theory of strong growth in the coming years in Latin America, which has an average age in the late 20s, compared to 37 in the US and 45 in Japan and Germany. This means the region has a greater proportion of the population at working age and paying taxes into the system, thereby taking pressure off the pensions and education systems.A GDP per capita of about a quarter of that of the US left plenty of room for growth, he added.