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The danger of investing in political footballs

Does anyone really know the end game on Cyprus? Clem explores investing in political "footballs".

One of the tips in my best-selling investing guide, 101 Ways to Pick Stock Market Winners, is never invest in political footballs. I go on to say politicians think nothing of crushing companies, or for that matter, industries, regions or even states. It is just part of what they do.Imagine if politicians could break an entire country? Let’s use the current situation in Cyprus for an example.It’s bailout process should have been a slam dunk and little more than a bit of post euro-crisis tidying up. Instead Cyprus is now a mess and this week it will go down in the annuls of economic history. How big an entry is what will be decided and whether it story will be a foot note or a whole chapter is yet to be seen.Can Cyprus kill the Euro? No.The markets say there is nothing to worry about, which is good news if the markets are right. It must be observed that big moves in currencies and bonds have been telegraphed by the markets days and sometimes weeks in advance, so we can show confidence to a high degree that Cyprus is not going to crash Europe and subsequently the world.Politicians leak like sieves so it is no surprise in these heavily politically manipulated economic times that what is going behinds the scenes in make or break affairs of state soon gets out. As such, the market moves very much in advance of the news getting officially released.On the flip side, does anyone really know the end game on Cyprus? Are the key bail-in or meltdown scenarios covered?The market says yes, or else the Euro would be in spasm and Euro bonds in Italy and Spain would be collapsing again. They aren’t, at least not yet.What is not being discussed though is the aftermath for Cyprus. You would think a 6-10 percent haircut is not so bad when the alternative is considered.However, the mere mention of depositor confiscation as a credible possibility, whether it is now on or off and even if the whole sorry mess is happily sorted out without such a measure, guarantees that the Cypriot financial services industry is toast.Whatever happens now, depositor money will evaporate as quickly as the rules will allow, bringing the whole industry low.Sun bleached islands need a bit more than tourism and olives to thrive, especially with one million inhabitants and Cypriot solution was to be a mini-banking powerhouse. Cyprus took the same route as Iceland and is now paying the same price.The model works just fine for Switzerland but it is probably the hundreds of years of banking DNA baked into Switzerland, and not into Cyprus and Iceland, that makes the difference. Swiss bankers are meant to be the most boring people in the world and it appears boring is the key to longevity in banking.So Cyprus will be knocked out of global banking in any event by this crisis and its healthy GDP of approximately $30,000 per capita is going to take a harsh blow.In one fell swoop an industry will have been destroyed by pure political incompetence.If there is one lesson to be sure to take away from this economic and financial train wreck and that is if you really want to create a disaster from a drama, bring on the politicians.Clem Chambers is CEO of leaving private investors website ADVFN.com and regular contributor to The Royal Gazette. Follow Clem on Twitter: @ClemChambers.