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Insurers' shares fall again - but some are oversold, say analysts

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday, March 16, 2011. (AP Photo)

Shares of most Bermuda market re/insurers continued to fall yesterday in the wake of the destruction caused by Japan's earthquake and tsunami last Friday.The worst-hit of the group yesterday was Platinum Underwriters, which slid 4.2 percent in New York Stock Exchange trading.Over the four full days of trading, several companies have seen tens of millions of dollars wiped off their market capitalisation.Flagstone Re, which fell 0.9 percent yesterday, has tumbled 21.5 percent since the 8.9-magnitude quake struck.Bermuda rivals Montpelier Re (13.8 percent), Platinum (12.4 percent), and Lancashire (10.8 percent) have also experienced double-digit drops over the past four days, while Aspen (8.7 percent) and Catlin Group (6.8 percent) also suffered large knocks.But with experts predicting that the global industry's losses could be limited to less than $25 billion, some analysts were already suggesting that a number of reinsurance companies had been oversold.Catlin Group, along with the world's biggest reinsurer Munich Re, were upgraded to “neutral” from “underperform” at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.German giant Munich Re was also added to the “analyst focus list” at JPMorgan Chase & Co, which said it sees potential for a 40 percent gain in the shares after they tumbled following the Japan earthquake.Munich Re “offers the most attractive risk reward with its stable business model” and 7.4 billion euros ($10.3 billion) in excess capital at the end of last year, Michael Huttner, an analyst at JPMorgan in London, wrote in a note to clients.Munich Re has dropped more than 10 percent since the earthquake and tsunami hit Japan on March 11.Shares of Swiss Reinsurance Co, the world's second-biggest reinsurer, rose 0.7 percent in Zurich, while Hannover Re, the third largest, gained 0.4 percent in Frankfurt, rebounding from losses from earlier this week.“While we remain structurally cautious on the cycle and many of the reinsurance/London market names in our coverage, we do feel that a short-term correction of the recent very poor performance is warranted,” analyst Brian Shea wrote in a note yesterday. “Either stock will respond positively as less bad losses get announced,” which he said is “the most likely” scenario.Standard & Poor's Ratings Services yesterday said it “doesn't expect to take widespread ratings actions” on insurers following the earthquake, “because much of the industry is dealing with this disaster from a position of capital strength”.

THE WORST-HIT SHARES

Impact on Bermuda market insurers' stock prices over the last four days of trading)

Flagstone Re -21.5%

Montpelier Re -13.8%

Platinum -12.4%

Lancashire -10.8%

Aspen -8.7%

Catlin Group -6.8%

Endurance -5.9%

PartnerRe -5.7%

Everest Re -5%