More than 74,000 people could be living in Bermuda by 2030 if the Island?s current population growth continues, according to preliminary estimates compiled by the Department of Statistics.

Statistician Melinda Williams, of the Social and Demographic Division, said according to her most recent projections, Bermuda will have a population density of 3,572 people per square mile in 2030.

The Department of Statistics emphasised that the projections are preliminary and are still subject to verification and audit. A final set of projections are expected to be released later, once the verification process has been completed. The Department could not say how much variation there might be in the final figures.

A 2000 Census of Population and Housing said Bermuda had a ?de facto? or existing population of 66,545 and a population density of 2,992, however, it remains to be seen whether Bermuda has a carrying capacity for over 75,000.

These figures have not been seen by Cabinet and as such, Director of Sustainable Development Erica Smith refused to comment on them.

Mrs. Williams said that by 2010, Bermuda was projected to have a total population (including both Bermudians and non-Bermudians) of 67,348 people.

By 2020 a projected 70,947 people will live in Bermuda, she said, however, by 2030 the projection rises to 74,083 ? an increase of 6.6 percent from 2000.

According to calculations, housing this many more people will require 4,845 homes more than the 25,148 there were in 2000 and 1,093 more than there were estimated to be in 2004, based on the average household size of 2.47 people in 2000.

This number has been decreasing ? in 1991 it was 2.61.

The number of cars on the road and children in school would also increase with the population.

Mrs. Williams warned that she did not have a crystal ball and should any unforeseen events happen in the future ? for example, a recession ? the population may not reach such unprecedented heights.

?The farther away you get from the base year the more likely they are to change,? Mrs. Williams said.

But she said her last set of predictions were pretty close, being off by less than one percent.

And there was always a possibility that this number could rise, she said. Her old set of predictions ? carried out in 1991 ? projected the population in 2010 would be 64,417.

However, this number has jumped by 2,931 people in her 2006 estimate and was off by only 371 for the non-institutional population of 2000.

Levels of economic prosperity at the time of the projections were key, she said. ?These numbers assume we will grow at the same rate as the rest of the decade,? she said.

?If there was a recession like there was in 1991 ? we would need less non-Bermudians because companies need to cut back.?

Bermuda already has one of the highest population densities in the world. According to online encyclopaedia Wikipedia it had the fourth highest population density in the world ? tied in fourth place with Malta.

Monaco has the highest density, followed by Singapore, Hong Kong, Gibraltar and the Gaza Strip in second place and third went to Vatican City.

Bermuda?s census data from 1980, 1991 and 2000 showed that for three decades, the Island?s population density has hovered around the 3,000 person per square mile range ? 2,922, 3,160 and 2,992 respectively.

The former baselands were not included in the calculations for 1980 and 1991, but were in 2000, which is the reason the population density per square mile fell.

Mrs. Williams calculated that by 2020, Bermuda?s population density will be 3,421 and by 2030 will be 3,572.

Although it varies from year to year, the Island?s population growth rate has been less than one percent each year, she said.

?We are growing very slowly,? she said. ?Some years were negative growth years.? She said one year had an increase of 0.52 percent and not one since 2000 had had a one percent growth rate.

However, the statistics showed small increments over long periods of time could result in large increases, depending on economic circumstances.

?When we get to 2010, I will revisit the projections and redo them,? she said.