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Cisco, GE among Obama stimulus winners

NEW YORK (Bloomberg) — Cisco Systems Inc., General Electric Co. and Emcor Group Inc. may be winners as President-elect Barack Obama seeks to revive the US economy by rewiring classrooms and libraries for high-speed Internet service and repairing bridges and highways.

While industrial giants such as US Steel Corp. and Caterpillar Inc. were called on to build 47,000 miles of roads, bridges and tunnels under President Dwight Eisenhower in the 1950s, technology companies will be tapped under Obama to improve efficiency at hospitals and schools, ease congested traffic and make alternative fuels work, said analysts and company executives.

The president-elect's transition team hasn't put a number on the package. Economist James Galbraith, a Democratic Party adviser, recommends spending of more than $900 billion.

"This is a non-traditional stimulus," said Frank MacInnis, chief executive officer of Emcor Group Inc., a Norwalk, Connecticut-based maker of systems for voice and data, electrical power and lighting. "These new priorities of the Obama administration are indicative of the way that systems installation is capable of improving the efficiency of existing facilities."

Investors drove up shares of construction companies and steelmakers including Cemex SAB, Fluor Corp. and Olympic Steel Inc., by close to one-quarter yesterday after Obama said in a radio address Saturday he'd launch "the single largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s".

Cisco, the world's biggest maker of networking equipment, rose 8.2 percent in trading on the Nasdaq Composite Index on Monday. That was twice the increase the Nasdaq 100 recorded that day, and it may still underestimate the benefit such suppliers of technology products and services could realise under the Obama plan, said Dan Kusnetzky, founder of Kusnetzky Group, a research firm in Sarasota, Florida.

Just as the highway programme moved the US into a new era in the 1950s, the federal government can lead the way toward an information-based economy, said Terry Alberstein, senior director of corporate public relations for Cisco in San Jose, California.

"It"s critical that government and industry work together to create a 21st century digital infrastructure that ensures US economic competitiveness and job growth in areas like science and engineering," Alberstein said.

Even something as basic as highways now have the capability of being "smart" by alerting motorists to congestion and helping re-route automobiles to keep traffic flow smooth, Emcor"s MacInnis said.

The 1956 investment programme reflected an era of rapidly increasing automobile use as well as Eisenhower's desire to improve domestic defenses during the Cold War. Obama's infrastructure plans resemble the interstate highway programme in ambition and scope; its components, on the other hand, reflect a computer and web-driven economy.

Manufacturing accounted for 27 percent of the US economy during the 1950s and 30 percent of employment. Today, manufacturing has shrunk to about 12 percent of the economy and provides one out of every 10 jobs.

Upgrades of roads and bridges that have fallen into disrepair after years of under-spending on maintenance will be one way to create jobs quickly. Every $1 billion spent on road work creates about 35,000 jobs, according to October congressional testimony submitted by the US unit of Ireland's CRH Plc.

European building-materials companies, such as CRH, are poised to benefit from a US stimulus package. To create an additional 2.5 million jobs via construction over the next two years, the US will need to spend an additional $90 billion to $100 billion, according to Tobias Woerner, an analyst at MF Global Ltd. in London. That level of spending could result in a net increase in building-material volumes of as much as 20 percent for next year and 2010, the analyst said, with the main beneficiaries being CRH, as well as Lafarge SA of France, Holcim Ltd. of Switzerland, and Buzzi Unicem SpA of Italy.

Peoria, Illinois-based Caterpillar Inc. generated 63 percent of its revenue in 2007 through sales of mining and road-building gear. It estimates the US will need as much as $700 billion in infrastructure spending to compete against China, where new roads, bridges, ports and airports are giving companies an edge, Group President Doug Oberhelman said in an October interview.

Whether building networks or highways, makers of steel and cement and other basic materials are in line to benefit, Michael Siegal, Olympic Steel"s chief executive officer, said in an interview. "We are so far behind where we need to be, whether you"re talking about roads, bridges, sewage plants, wind-power plants, ethanol plants or nuclear plants," he said.

Bedford Heights, Ohio-based Olympic surged $3.83, or 25 percent, to $19.02 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading yesterday. The American depositary shares of Cemex, the largest cement producer in the US, jumped $2.07, or 28 percent, to $9.40.

Along with upgrading highways and bridges, Obama is focusing on the needs of schools and the nation's information network. The president-elect proposes putting more computers in schools and extending and improving Internet broadband coverage.

"Given the increased complexity of the economy, those things are more of a focus and they reflect the technological sophistication of where the economy is today," said Alec Phillips, an economist with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Washington and a former Senate Finance Committee staffer.

Obama also said he "will launch a massive effort to make public buildings more energy-efficient".

Fairfield, Connecticut-based General Electric began gearing up for a transition to a green economy in 2005 with a programme called "ecomagination". The company spends $1.4 billion annually to develop energy-efficient product lines such as locomotives, jet engines and power-plant equipment, including wind turbines and solar power.

GE may also benefit from investment in water treatment, lighting efficiency and so-called "smart grid" electrical distribution, said Peter O"Toole, a spokesman. The Obama focus on modernising the health-care system could also mean business for the company, he said.