Bulletin of Statistics which shows that in the first half of the year, the economy showed steady, if not spectacular, growth.

Flat tourism arrivals were offset by slight increases in spending, meaning that even though fewer people visited the Island, they appeared to be putting more money into the economy.

And on international business, more exempted company incorporations were recorded, showing that the other leg of the economy remained vibrant.

That's all good news, particularly in the context of a new Government when it would not have been surprising if business decided to approach expansion with caution.

The fact that Government revenue was also up in the period shows that the tax base remains solid and that could mean in turn that Mr. Cox was wise not to raise taxes in the February Budget.

The fact that employment and personal incomes rose in the period without any appreciable effect on inflation is also important, although it should be noted that inflation has since begun to accelerate, albeit at a gentle pace.

There remain a number of areas of concern. While construction was very strong in the second quarter, a number of the projects, such as the ACE/XL development, the Waterfront and the Lines Overseas Management building are now finished or are drawing to a close.

There do not appear to be many more projects of this size on the horizon, and this, coupled with a slowdown in the construction of private homes, suggests the construction sector may begin to contract. This could reduce employment and imports.

The looming closures of the Castle Harbour and the Palmetto Bay, along with the recent closure of the Belmont, mean that there will be fewer hotel beds available next year, and that will restrict any rapid improvement in tourism.

Weakness in the insurance sector's financial results also suggests that there may well be slower growth in international business, especially as competition from centres like the Cayman Islands and Dublin increases.

The continued uncertainty over the Island's tax status may contribute to that, in spite of the news in today's newspaper that one of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development's major committees has come out against the organisation's bid for "tax harmonisation''.

These factors, coupled with growing uncertainty over whether the bull market on the US stock markets is drawing to a close, means that Bermuda needs to be very careful in the next few months.

It may be that a period of belt-tightening is necessary and that Government needs to avoid any more surprises like the land tax increase; these could affect confidence and cut the amount of money in circulation in the economy.

At the same time, Mr. Cox needs to look seriously at the need for lower taxes in the whole tourism sector. It may prevent more companies going under if the economy does slow down heavily.