Reinsurers count costs of Euro storms: `Year of disasters will have positive
The latest storms in Europe could bring sweeping changes to the insurance and reinsurance markets in Bermuda, finally turning the soft market hard.
The storms, which killed more than 80 people and left a trail of destruction across France, Spain, Switzerland and southern Germany, are just the latest in a year of an unprecedented number of natural disasters.
And the billions of dollars which have been paid out to the victims of these disasters will push up premiums, which will in turn bring in higher profits for the insurers and reinsurers.
While the storms Lothar and Martin have happened too late in the year to affect most premiums -- contracts are normally renewed in the new year -- they will certainly impact on prices for 2001 and contracts signed after the new year.
"Prices in the market have been soft for the last three or four years,'' said Henry Keeling, president and chief executive officer of XL Mid Ocean Re.
"But these disasters, such as Lothar and Martin unfortunate though they are, will have a positive impact on the business. The premiums will go up and this will produce greater returns.'' The cost of the European storms which struck Europe last week is still being counted. Estimates range from several billion to $6 billion.
Extremely violent gusts wreaked massive damage upon numerous buildings and uprooted countless trees.
The insurance industry will book 1999 as a year of unusually high natural catastrophes and will be the second-highest for any year on record.
According to current indication this year will only be topped by 1992 when Hurricane Andrew hit the United States.
Wendy Davis Johnson spokeswoman for ACE Ltd said that their insurance company would not be directly affected by the most recent storms.
She said: "The market is still in the process of evaluating the extent of the damage. But preliminary measures show that the premium will be in personal lives and we don't have much exposure to personal lives in Europe.'' Taken over the entire region affected the financial consequences come as no surprise to reinsurance giant Swiss Re.
A spokesman for the company said: "Every two to three years on average, the company expects a billion-dollar storm event (measured in total insured losses), and this, despite the fact that no event of this magnitude has occurred in Europe since the series of storms in 1990.
"The storms of the past few days were thus to be expected, and Swiss Re has provided for the financial consequences through its equalisation provision for major and catastrophe losses. The spokesman added that below-average event frequencies over the past five years have strongly undermined reinsurance rates in catastrophe lines.
"This year's loss experience gives reason to expect a price recovery for these covers.'' Bermuda's insurance and reinsurance companies will soon be feeling the full impact of the storms that have wreaked havoc through Europe.
Insurance assessor Risk Management Solutions said the insurance costs of the two windstorms could exceed the cost of the previous worst insurance catastrophe in Europe -- Windstorm Daria in 1990, which cost $6.1 billion.
"On the basis of RMS' modelling, Lothar is the most damaging storm to have affected France in several hundred years,'' RMS said in a statement.
RMS added that as much as 60 percent of the buildings in central Paris had sustained roof damage and as much as 100 percent of the buildings in some towns in eastern France had been damaged. It said Lothar and Martin had caused at least twice as much insured damage in France as that caused by the storms Daria and Herta in 1990. Insured losses in France then were $1.3 billion.
Britain's Salmon Assessors said it saw the storms costing insurers between $4 billion and $5 billion across Europe.
French reinsurance group Scor said the storms would have a 50 million euro ($50.46 million) impact on its net results this year.
Scor also estimated the overall damage at "almost certainly in excess of five billion euros.'' Jeffrey Salmon of Salmon Assessors said, "We can expect premiums to rise for the next two to three years by 30 to 40 percent across the board.'' WORLD'S TOP 10 DISASTER World's 10 worst insurance disasters The windstorms that ravaged Europe this week could become the most expensive insurance catastrophe in European history and the fourth largest ever, initial estimates have found.
Insurance assessors Risk Management Solutions said the insurance bill from windstorms Lothar and Martin could be larger than the Daria storm that swept Europe in 1990 and costs $6.1 billion in 1999 value terms. Salmon Assessors saw the cost between $4 billion to $5 billion, while French reinsurer Scor saw the overall cost over $5.0 billion. The ten most expensive insurance disasters in history (in US billions): Event/Place/Year/Cost 1 Hurricane Andrew US 1992 18.6 2 Earthquake Los Angeles 1994 13.8 3 Cyclone Mireille Japan 1991 6.7 4 Storms Lothar & Martin Europe 1999 4.0 to over 6.1 5 Storm Daria Europe 1990 5.7 6 Hurricane Hugo U.S. 1989 5.5 7 Autumn storms Europe 1987 4.3 8 Storm Vivian Europe 1990 4.0 9 Piper Alpha oil rig North Sea 1988 2.8 10 Typhoon Bart Japan 1999 2.5 Source: Swiss Re, a reinsurer, except , which is a compilation of estimates from assessors Risk Management Solutions, Salmon Assessors, Scor.
Counting the costs: The swollen river Seine covers the foot of the Bridge of the Invalides in Paris, France yesterday, after powerful storms ripped across Western Europe, killing more than 100.
