Forecasters are predicting a below-normal hurricane season, with only ten named storms in the Atlantic.

A team at Colorado State University yesterday reduced its forecast from 12 to ten the second fewest storms in a decade.

On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also lowered its outlook, saying it expects a near- to below-normal season.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says there is a 70 percent chance of seven to 11 named storms, of which between three and six could become hurricanes. Of these, one or two are expected to become major Category Three, Four or Five hurricanes.

Three months ago NOAA predicted nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes.

During an average season there are 11 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph, of which six become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater, and two become major hurricanes with winds of above 111 mph.

The reason for the reduced Atlantic season outlook is the development of El Niño warmer than normal water in the equatorial Pacific which results in upper-level wind shear which hampers the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic.

NOAA lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Dr. Gerry Bell said this week: "El Niño continues to develop and is already affecting upper-level atmospheric pressure and winds across the global tropics.

"El Niño produces stronger upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which help to reduce hurricane activity by blowing away the tops of growing thunderstorm clouds that would normally lead to tropical storms."

An added factor which is expected to reduce the number of storms is the presence of the Bermuda High.

Meteorologists say this mid-Atlantic ridge of high pressure has set up in the right location this summer to 'steer' any storms that form, south of the Carolinas.

The high pressure block has an anti-cyclonic nature, circulating the air clockwise and directing African eastern waves along the southern periphery of the Azores (Bermuda) High, away from coastal West Africa towards North America and the Caribbean.

Meteorologist James Dodgson, of the Bermuda Weather Service, said that despite the reduced storm forecast, people should remain prepared for every eventuality.

Mr. Dodgson warned that we are now entering the Cape Verde Season, which can produce powerful hurricanes.

"Early in the season forecasters saw signs of El Niño developing and now it's very much in place so they have downgraded their predictions," he said.

"El Niño produces stronger upper-level westerly winds and this rips apart storms which are trying to develop. But it is worth noting that it only takes one storm to cause havoc, and in some quiet seasons in the past couple of decades we've been affected by these storms.

"So the main thing is for people not to let their guard down. Also, in the next one to two weeks we may get something developing in the Atlantic as we will get storms coming off the Cape Verde Islands."

Cape Verde-type hurricanes can become the most intense storms of the season because they usually have plenty of warm open ocean over which to develop before encountering land.

Mr. Dodgson said: "Mid-August is typically the time of year for these storms to develop, but for the moment it is all quiet out there."