does not do well at the next election it will be a "tremendous moral blow''.

We think it is more likely to be a mortal blow.

The problem with the NLP is that it does not really have a place in Bermudian politics. It was created by Progressive Labour Party defectors who were unhappy with the direction taken by the PLP and led by Mr. Gilbert Darrell who appears to have been unable to tolerate then-PLP Leader Mrs. Lois Browne Evans. The breakaway came about because it is very hard to hold together a political party which has never held power and continues to lose elections.

Those who shifted from the PLP to the NLP held what were really PLP seats and the NLP has been unable to win seats on its own except Mr. Darrell's Hamilton East seat which is very much a personal rather than a party seat. The retiring chairman, Mr. Graeme Outerbridge, may do very well in Smith's South because he works hard there and the UBP has fumbled in that constituency. If the NLP cannot win more seats or if the ageing Mr. Darrell does not hold his seat, then the NLP is no longer a political reality.

As we see it, the National Liberal Party has a major identity crisis. It is neither liberal nor national and it does not have an identifiable role. In reality, the United Bermuda Party occupies the middle political ground and the Progressive Labour Party these days occupies the rightist position. The NLP thinks of itself as "liberal'' but it is not a liberal party and Mr. Darrell demonstrates that every time he speaks. The retiring chairman, Mr.

Outerbridge, suggests the NLP is caught between the two main parties but that is not true. The truth seems to be that the NLP does not know where it is. As nearly as we can judge, it is financially tax and spend and socially conservative and that is the mix Bermuda dislikes most. The UBP succeeds with the voters because it is financially careful and socially responsive.

During the last nine years the NLP has not defined for itself a position which voters could identify with nor has it attracted a general membership which would indicate public support. As an example, its new chairman, Mr. Geoff Parker, seems to be in the National Liberal Party which advocates income tax and spending because the United Bermuda Party's financial platform was not conservative enough for him! The retiring chairman, Mr. Outerbridge, has called the NLP an "innovative party'' but the major innovation seems to be a suggestion of income tax which Bermudian voters traditionally shun. The PLP understands that and while it gives every suggestion of advocating income tax, it hides behind phrases like "progressive taxes'' so as not to terrify the voters.

The NLP's problem may well be that its individual members each have a cause but they have no collective position to support. The NLP members know they can't win an election. They know that neither major party pays them much attention. They also know that the party has very little impact on the affairs of Bermuda except that sometimes it can be a buffer or honest broker as it was in the fish row. At best they are an intrusion in politics with no foreseeable future.