third consecutive rise in retail sales in Bermuda.

During the last quarter of 1992, the retail sales index was higher than in the three corresponding months in 1991.

But the December figures were 4.4 percent higher than a year earlier, which could be the signal of an improvement in the economic situation.

However, Dr. Saul said he would not talk in terms of a recovery until he saw improvements over six months of the year.

The retail sales index, which shows the amounts of consumer spending over the year, has been unstable during the recession.

During the first eight months of 1992 it showed a decline because consumers have been unwilling to spend due to fears about the guaranteed availability of cash.

But figures began to rise in September and continued until the end of the year.

Christmas shopping and a strong rise in motor vehicle purchases is responsible for the large increase in December. There was an estimated gross turnover of $52.7 million in the retail industry, $1.1 million compared to the previous December's figure.

A spokesman for the Government's statistical department said: "The impact of Christmas shopping combined with the promotional incentives offered by many retailers during the month, was a little stronger than in previous years.

"Among the broad mix of store types in this sector, there was the expected seasonal demand for children's toys and games, jewellry and apparel and personal items.

"In the remaining sectors, the Christmas holiday shopping also impacted on food and liquor store sales which exceeded the previous year's levels by 3.3 percent and 4.6 percent respectively.'' The Finance Minister refused to read too much into the Christmas figures and was more interested in the whole quarter.

He said: "During the quarter things were getting better, compared to what they were, a bit dismal. We might see a light at the end of the tunnel.

"However I want to see two quarters of constant improvement before I start saying `Yippee!' "It is my hope that the downturn has now reached its nadir. It could be the bottom of the thing and it's now a case of crawling out slowly.'' DR. DAVID SAUL -- Refuses to get too excited.