A prominent hurricane forecast centre in the United States has predicted “somewhat below-normal activity” for the Atlantic hurricane season, which begins officially on June 1 and runs until November 30.

The researchers of the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science cited the forecast of a “robust” El Niño as a primary factor in their early estimates.

The Pacific weather phenomenon, closely linked to sea surface temperatures, casts a global influence on weather, especially in tropical and subtropical regions — including hurricanes.

CSU said its team anticipated a “moderate to strong” El Niño to be in force by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, from August through October.

The system’s reach means it can power westerly winds across the Caribbean and into the tropical Atlantic.

The stronger winds generate shear that makes conditions less favourable for hurricanes to develop and build strength.

Overall, CSU has predicted 13 named storms, which include tropical storms.

The group projected six of these to become hurricanes, with two of them to ramp into major storm systems of Category 3 and stronger.

The report this week marks CSU’s 43rd year of issuing forecasts for the Atlantic season.

On average, 14 named storms appear each season, yielding seven hurricanes, three of which become major hurricanes.

Hurricanes derive their energy from warm seas, and the group reported “mixed” signals for Atlantic surface temperatures.

While they emphasised the spring forecast was an early projection, CSU said waters in the western tropical Atlantic were warmer than normal at present, but slightly cooler than normal in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic.

The CSU report also issued probabilities for landfall by major hurricanes in various areas in the path of the storms.

It gave a figure of 32 per cent for the entire US coastline against an 1880 to 2020 average of 43 per cent; 15 per cent for the US East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, against a 21 per cent average; and 35 per cent for the Caribbean to take a storm hit, against a 47 per cent average.

Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at CSU and one of the authors of the report, likened conditions expected for 2026 to the 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023 seasons.

Colorado State will issue updated forecasts on June 10, July 8 and August 5.