In the first in a three-part series, Michael Fahy looks at the statistics which show the depth of Bermuda’s demographic crisis

The One Bermuda Alliance has been writing about Bermuda's demographic crisis for a long time now. Longer, frankly, than many people would like to be reminded of. When the OBA warned that Bermuda's population was contracting at a dangerous rate, it was met with protests, accusations and, in some quarters, outright fury. When we wrote repeatedly in these pages that our shrinking workforce would hollow out the tax base, strain our pensions and leave our seniors exposed, the critics said the OBA was fear mongering. I take no pleasure in saying this but the facts have since spoken clearly, loudly and without apology.

Bermuda's estimated year-end population has now fallen to 63,179. That is not a projection. That is the number published in the 2025 Digest of Statistics and it represents many consecutive years in which deaths have exceeded births on this island. In 2023 alone, there were only 436 live births, a record low against 622 deaths. We are not just failing to grow. We are shrinking, quietly and relentlessly, year after year. The number of 63,179 is likely optimistic, given that many other indicators would suggest the population is likely less than 60,000.

I am speaking directly to every Bermudian reading this. The OBA understands the deeply human and entirely reasonable instinct to be protective of what is ours. When we have worked hard to build a life on this rock, when our parents and grandparents before us sacrificed to make Bermuda what it is, the idea of opening doors to others can feel like an act of surrender. We hear that. We respect that. We have never dismissed it. Here is what we ask in return. Look at the numbers. Not through a political lens, not through the prism of party loyalty, but as a Bermudian who wants our island to be thriving when our children come of age.

The Bermuda Chamber of Commerce has been unequivocal. Consecutive population declines are threatening to impact growth and weaken the island's tax base. Marico Thomas, the chamber president, has said it plainly: “As we lose people, we lose workers, customers and business activity.” This is not the Opposition speaking. This is the business community, the people who employ Bermudians, who sign payroll cheques, who keep the lights on in Hamilton and across Bermuda. This alarm bell was rung repeatedly by the late Larry Burchall almost 20 years ago.

When I was appointed Minister of Home Affairs, which then had the responsibilities of labour and immigration, in December 2012, I was handed a dossier that told the story in stark terms. The working population was already in perpetual decline in terms of births versus deaths and guest workers leaving owing to term limits. It was a perfect storm. Just when we needed people to stay, and more people to come, we slammed the door in their faces. The “anti-foreigner” rhetoric increased and we now pay the price.

Since 2008, Bermuda has lost an estimated 6,000 residents, with some commentators suggesting the number may be closer to 10,000. Bermuda's economy boomed when our population was closer to 70,000. It contracted when people left. That is not a coincidence. That is cause and effect. The OBA said it, the late Larry Burchall observed it and the Fiscal Responsibility Panel confirmed it. The Chamber of Commerce repeats it. The data is unambiguous. Bermuda's economy functions better when the population is closer to 70,000 than 60,000.

Allegedly, we are now sitting at 63,179 people, and the trajectory is downward. To reach a sustainable working population, one sufficient to support our ageing society and service our obligations, the Government has itself acknowledged a target of approximately 70,000 people. That means finding, attracting, and retaining the equivalent of at least 7,000 additional residents. On an island of 21 square miles, in a competitive global environment where the Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands and Channel Islands are all offering more generous pathways to permanence, this will be difficult.

The OBA has spent years being told we were wrong. As I shared in 2023, hundreds of people have since stopped me on the streets, in grocery stores, on the ferries to say that their views have changed, to say that they now understand what was being argued. Some have used the word “vindication”.

While flattering, we are not interested in vindication. We, as the OBA, are interested in solutions, and the solutions, as I will explain in two parts that will follow, require us to be honest about housing, honest about our economy and brutally honest about the fiscal time bomb ticking beneath our feet.

The first step is accepting what the numbers already tell us. Bermuda's demographic crisis is not coming. It is here and it has been here for years. Every year we delay the honest conversation is another year closer to a reckoning none of us can afford. The OBA is not talking about the big bad word of “status” here. We are talking about securing our own future as Bermudians and the future of our children. We know that is what we all need and what we all desire.

Tomorrow: the housing crisis

• Michael Fahy is the Shadow Minister of Economy and Labour and Housing, and is the MP for Pembroke South West (Constituency 20). He can be reached on mfahy@oba.bm or opedfahy@gmail.com.