Progressive Democrats’ impressive string of primary victories has increased talk that the left’s most prominent non-geriatric figure — Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — should run for president in 2028. That would amount to a major gamble with her bright political future. But if she really wants to be president, she should do it anyway. Becoming president is something like two parts skill and one part luck. Successful candidates usually have the charisma to excite a crowd and the message to compel support (those are the skill parts). But they also need to have the great good fortune to meet their lucky moment.

A candidate can arrive too far ahead of public opinion — think Barry Goldwater in 1964 or George McGovern in 1972 — which could be the risk that gives AOC the most pause. But there’s also the risk of being too late. Senator Walter Mondale chose not to enter the 1976 race (“I don’t want to spend the next two years in Holiday Inns,” he famously said), and Georgia governor Jimmy Carter came from out of nowhere to win the presidency. By the time Mondale finally got his shot, a Ronald Reagan landslide was waiting to bury him.

New York governor Mario Cuomo earned the nickname “Hamlet on the Hudson” as he agonised over whether to enter the 1992 race. Cuomo decided against challenging president George HW Bush, only to watch from the sidelines as Bill Clinton seized the opportunity. Many GOP leaders wanted pugnacious New Jersey governor Chris Christie to run in 2012. Christie decided against, clearly thinking he could still run in 2016. He tried that but got pummelled by the one-two punch of a George Washington Bridge lane closure and a mesmerising real estate mogul named Donald Trump.

That’s the question Ocasio-Cortez faces: Will she ever again have the opportunity that appears to lie before her?

Primary results this cycle have revealed a massive desire for unabashed champions of the progressive left among Democratic voters. Far-left House candidates have won in safely blue districts in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Colorado and elsewhere. This month, swing states joined the party: Abdul El-Sayed’s victory last week in Michigan and Francesca Hong’s razor-thin loss on Tuesday in Wisconsin show that progressives can go toe-to-toe with the establishment in key presidential territory, too.

It simply defies belief that those voters would not prefer a similar candidate in the presidential race. But could it be someone else? Bernie Sanders has mounted two strong presidential bids (more evidence that a far-left candidate like AOC is viable), but he would be 87 on Inauguration Day. Elizabeth Warren, who would be 79, is also clearly too old for voters scarred by Joe Biden’s calamitous 2024 campaign. Take those two off the table, and Ocasio-Cortez is easily the left’s best-known and most popular national figure.

If those two are too old, maybe AOC is too young. On Inauguration Day 2029 she would be 39, which is four years younger than the youngest-ever elected president, John F. Kennedy (Theodore Roosevelt was 42 when he took office after William McKinley’s assassination). That’s young. Won’t she still have plenty of other opportunities to run?

The problem is that if the lane is there — and I’m convinced it is — someone is going to take it. Maybe it will be Ro Khanna, who makes no secret of his interest in running. Maybe it will be a surprise a la Carter or Clinton. Surely one of the likely front-runners will try. But former vice-president Kamala Harris has wobbled between progressivism and centrism during her time in the national eye. Former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg is clearly a man of the centre-left. California Governor Gavin Newsom is better known for triangulation than for standing on principle. One or more could tack leftward, but none of them can compete with AOC’s authentic devotion to her causes.

Two caveats: first, winning the Democratic nomination would be the easy part. The general election would be a different story. The Democratic nominee could win in 2028 no matter who they are, especially if president Trump is as unpopular then as he is now, but suffice it to say it’s a good bet that the Republican Party would consider an AOC candidacy a dream come true.

And second, Ocasio-Cortez of course shouldn’t run if she is ambivalent about being president. The US presidency requires someone with an all-consuming ambition. Ambivalence will always come out in the campaign’s crucible. If she thinks the chalice is poisoned, best not to sip from it.

But if she harbours that dream, she should seize a moment that may never come again and jump in. Doubts can fade as the heat of combat intensifies; the enthusiasm she would immediately engender would help dispel any fears she might have. She would find, as so many others have, that to dare is to do.

A powerful wind has risen. Will AOC be the one to let it fill her sails?

• Henry Olsen is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Centre