Cat modeller estimates $3bn insured loss from Isaias
A Karen Clark & Company flash estimate for losses arising out of the ninth named storm in the Atlantic for the 2026 season has been issued.
Based on the high-resolution KCC US Hurricane Model, KCC estimates that the privately insured loss from Hurricane Isaias will be $3 billion in the US from wind and storm surge.
The estimate includes the privately insured damage to residential, commercial, and industrial properties and automobiles, as well as business interruption. It does not include boats, offshore properties, or the National Flood Insurance Programme losses.
Power outages were widespread across Florida and Alabama and extended into western Georgia where winds from the outer bands of Isaias caused many fallen tree limbs.
It was the ninth named storm in the Atlantic for the 2026 season, but the first to reach hurricane strength, and the latest first hurricane in a year. It made landfall in Destin, Florida as a Category 2 hurricane with 105mph winds.
The report said that the storm underwent rapid intensification twice: first strengthening from a tropical storm with 40mph maximum sustained winds to a hurricane with 80mph winds, and second from a Category 1 with 80mph winds to a Category 3 with 120mph winds.
Hurricane Isaias originated from an area of low pressure over the southwestern portion of the Gulf in early October.
Amid favourable environmental conditions, including warm ocean temperatures and high relative humidity, the system reached tropical storm strength and was named Isaias early in the morning on October 7. It rapidly strengthened throughout the day and reached hurricane intensity just before midnight.
Isaias turned towards the northeast and once again began to rapidly intensify, reaching a peak intensity of 120mph or a Category 3 hurricane Friday.
Wind shear increased as Isaias accelerated towards the Florida Panhandle, inducing weakening and causing Isaias to become more asymmetric. The strongest winds were displaced to the north and northwest of the eye and the eyewall began to break down.
The storm tracked inland into southern Alabama and began to rapidly deteriorate, transitioning to post-tropical in the Saturday morning. But it continued to produce tropical storm-equivalent winds while tracking inland through Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley.
Isaias weakened to tropical depression-strength in the Sunday morning over Tennessee and dissipated a few hours later over Kentucky.
