Falling house prices and rent, a shrinking population, rising health care costs, patchy public schools’ performance and huge numbers of people working for Government.Sounds like the average critic’s snapshot of Bermuda today, but that’s economist Peter Everson’s prediction of how the Island will look in 2016 if we don’t do more to make international business competitive.So what’s different, some would ask but Mr Everson believes it doesn’t have to be like that.As our Budget week series draws to a close, the Chamber of Commerce economic chairman gave The Royal Gazette two scenarios, one optimistic and one pessimistic, of how Bermuda’s economy will look in five years’ time.With his glass half full, Mr Everson hopes firms on the Island can regain their international competitiveness while Government is made smaller yet more effective, meaning the private sector would have to pay less to fund it.Make that glass half empty, and he sees businesses carrying on losing their competitiveness, while Government becomes more and more bloated, ineffective and expensive.The fiscal contrast between the two outcomes is stark, Mr Everson says.Get international business competitive and make Government efficient, and tax revenues can start to grow in line with GDP, with interest on public debt and debt repayments accounting for 15 percent of all tax revenues.But allow international business to slide and continue with an inefficient Government, and the struggling businesses will yield a decline in tax revenues.Interest on public debt will then suck up 20 percent of all tax revenues, meaning debt repayment has to be put off.Debt will only get worse, because capital projects can only be funded by borrowings, each of which would have to be approved by overseas lenders.Just as Bermuda’s finances are at a crucial crossroads, so the future of jobs, schools, health care and house prices can be influenced by the decisions made today.In his glass half full scenario, Mr Everson says public sector jobs will be transferred over to the private sector, lowering the burden for taxpayers.It would be easier to get the education system right, meaning students perform well and the confidence and pride of the area community will be given a timely boost.In health care, everyone could benefit from primary care reform and full pricing transparency to bring costs under control.And if the economic conditions are good, house prices and rents could be kept stable, yet lower in real terms than during the “bubble” years.The undesirable alternatives, he says, are an “inward-looking” public sector continuing to protect all jobs, a still struggling education system where students fail despite their parents paying taxes, escalating health care costs and a dwindling population causing house prices and rents to drop further.Fellow economist Robert Stewart’s glass isn’t just half empty there doesn’t appear to be anything in his cup at all.“The future holds a great deal of pain,” Mr Stewart told The Royal Gazette.“That cannot be avoided. It is a consequence of reckless spending and incompetent administration.He called for Government to put a halt to “the mass of unnecessary and unproductive spending”.Mr Stewart said: “When taxes fall, business hires. When taxes rise, business fires. This is elementary stuff, but the 14 percent payroll hike, and the xenophobic six-year work permit rule, have killed employment opportunities. Crazy.“If they do not cut expenditure, families will be even worse off. Stop digging.”Mr Stewart, a fierce critic of Government’s handling of pensions, believes things are only going to get worse as a result of the ageing population.Late last year, his research showed the Social Security Pension Fund deficit was $2.8 billion, Civil Service Pension Fund deficit $760 million and MPs Pension Fund deficit $8 million.Yesterday, he said: “The shrinking population will clearly result in an adverse effect on the funding of pensions and health care. An even bigger impact is the ageing population.”He said Economist Magazine had given Bermuda the fourth highest median age in the world, with more than 20 percent of the population aged over 60.“For a country, which has made little provision for pensions, this is nothing short of a disaster for those under 40,” he said.Bermuda Democratic Alliance finance spokesman Michael Fahy said much of the future hinges on today’s Budget.“It may very well leave us in a state of irreversible decline or set us up solidly for future growth,” said Mr Fahy.“In the short-term, if the tough decisions have been made, life will be different and not what Bermudians are used to.“Increased taxes, which is likely, the possibility of increased unemployment and a possible strangulation of the retail sector all mean pain.”Mr Fahy said the economy could be turned around if incentives are given to international business through payroll tax relief and more radical efforts to attract the uber wealthy to Bermuda.“We are not saying that we have all the solutions, far from it, but what would be useful is if Government actually listened to those who are supporting this economy: big business and the tourism industry.“If we are to be a stable country economically in the next number of years we must listen to those upon whom the tax burden is falling.“If we irritate that group, then there will literally be nothing in the pot to pay for Government services for the less fortunate.”