Bermuda is likely to need more rest homes like the Sylvia Richardson Facility in the future as Bermuda’s population ages.

In 2000, there were 6,722 people over the age of 65, compared to 5,396 in 1991, a rise of 25 percent. The percentage of people aged over 65 also rose, from nine percent in 1991 to 11 percent in 2000.

The number of people in rest homes also rose in the period, from 202 to 260, a rise of 29 percent. Again the percentage of elderly people in institutions of all kinds also rose, from 23 percent to 29 percent.

Curiously the number of elderly people with disabilities requiring care actually fell 14 percent between 1991 and 2000, from 1,216 to 1,040, a change the Census speculated was due to an improvement in the general health of persons in this category.

The median age of rest home residents also rose, from 80 in 1991 to 83 in 2000, while the median age of people in hospitals and hospices also jumped — from 59 to 68, a change the Census attributed to people entering the facilities at a later age, people living longer and an increase in the periods needed for extended medical care.

The Statistics Department has also produced estimates for Bermuda’s population and how it is likely to age going forward to 2030.

Overall, the population is not expected to increase dramatically, rising from 62,131 in 2000 to 65,447 in 2030.

However, the population is expected to age rapidly.

this year, the population of those who are 65 or older is calculated to be 7,692, or 12 percent of the population. By 2030, that number is expected to have risen to 14,554, or 22 percent of the population. (See table).

Even though advances in health care and wellness generally mean that today’s 65-year-olds are far more active than they were generations ago, it is likely that the demand for care will rise, especially as the number of octogenarians and nonagerians rise.

Another way of looking at this is to consider how many senior citizens there will be compared to the number of working age adults.

The population prediction report says that in 2000, the aged dependency ratio, which is the number of persons 65 years and over per one hundred persons aged 15 to 64 was 16.

By 2030 it was expected to to 36.

At the same time, due to reduced fertility levels, the youth dependency ratio, that is the number of persons 0 to 14 years per hundred persons 15 to 64, is projected to decline from 27 in 2000 to 26 by 2030.

That statistic does not have a direct bearing on rest home populations, except that more and more working age people will be needed to act as caregivers, but has very substantial ramifications for questions concerning the viability of pensions and health insurance.For more information on Bermuda’s ageing population, go to www.statistics.gov.bm