ANKARA (Reuters) — A spat over Cyprus policy between Turkey’s government and the military has exposed the waning influence of the men in uniform, but analysts say it is too early to write off the army as a key political player.General Yasar Buyukanit, hawkish head of Turkey’s General Staff, complained last week he had only learned of a surprise diplomatic initiative on Cyprus from TV and caustically recalled that Turkey keeps 40,000 troops in northern Cyprus.

He said the plan to open one Turkish port to Greek Cypriots diverged from “state policy” — a reminder that in Turkey state and government are not quite the same thing and that the army has traditionally functioned as a kind of shadow executive.

But Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said he did not have to inform the army about every twist in policy. The Foreign Ministry, in an unusual statement, indirectly chided Buyukanit for harming national unity during delicate negotiations.

“(The incident) is a sign of the military’s reduced influence and the fact that Turkey is becoming a more democratic, European country,” said Suat Kiniklioglu, head of the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Ankara.

“Erdogan made clear he is running the show,” he said.

Hugh Pope, author of books on Turkey, echoed this view.

“It is the first time I have seen a Turkish prime minister clearly stick to a position despite criticism from the army and not have any worries about it. In the old days you had no doubt who would win such an argument,” said Pope.

“The army is in when politicians are weak,” he said.

The army, which views itself as the ultimate guarantor of the secular Turkish state, has ousted four elected governments over the past half century, the last as recently as 1997 over its perceived tilt towards Islamist policies.

But it has seen its influence steadily pared back in the past few years as Erdogan, who also has Islamist roots, pursues EU-mandated reforms.

This week, Erdogan vowed to press on with the reforms despite a decision by EU foreign ministers to partially suspend Turkey’s entry talks due to the row over ports with Cyprus.

Gareth Jenkins, an Istanbul-based analyst of the Turkish military, said Buyukanit was expected by his own men to speak out on issues they feel strongly about — including Cyprus — but noted he had been careful to hedge his latest remarks.

“Buyukanit said ‘we are not running the country’. That is unusual, coming from the General Staff ... He has to choose his battles carefully in order to win the war,” he said.

The “war” in question is the campaign to stop Erdogan from contesting the presidency in an election due next spring.

The army and other secularists, including outgoing President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, fear Erdogan will try to undermine Turkey’s strict division of state and religion if he takes the top job.

They also think Erdogan, a devout Muslim whose wife wears the Islamic headscarf, is too divisive a figure to be president.

“But by opposing everything the AK Party government says or does, as with Cyprus, Buyukanit risks damaging an institution (the army) that enjoys strong respect,” said Kiniklioglu.

The army, rated Turkey’s most trusted institution, needs public support in its run-ins with the government, analysts say — and that is not automatic when the economy is growing strongly and EU entry talks are, more or less, on track.

“The military’s political leverage hinges on public support. Public speeches are one of the few instruments left to them as they have less regular contact with the government than before,” said Jenkins.

Buyukanit has already served notice he will not hesitate to speak out in coming months if he feels Turkey’s vital interests — secularism and a strong nation state — are under threat.

If Erdogan does decide to run for president and if Cyprus continues to hamper EU talks, Turkey could face a stormy 2007.

“The army has taken a step backwards (under the pressure of EU reforms), but it has not been removed from the arena. And it can always move forwards again,” said Jenkins.