Investment pro says war shouldn't alter your long term goals
In today's jittery markets, investors are looking for something to steady their nerves.
Antoinette Bolden, managing director of the Emerald Financial Group seems to be "calm and collected" personified. "I'm a naturally calm person" she says.
She's certainly a reassuring person to talk to on the day after war broke out: "I'm an eternal optimist. Like most women, I have to be practical."
She refuses to concede that the US led invasion will result in a decrease in consumer spending, preferring the view that the conflict will restore certainty. The current market rally, she hopes, is the market's response to the expectation of a short war.
But will the threat of terrorist reprisals continue to depress the economy? "People still have to live." she says. "People are still buying Ford cars and we're not going to say I'm not going to buy a Dell because there's a war. I honestly do not think that people will stop spending."
Even when confronted with a scenario of Dell going bankrupt due to lack of cover for a terrorism act, she is not phased. "I'll buy an IBM computer instead" she says.
Even if terrorism becomes part of life, you adapt to that life. "Take Isreal, for example. The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange has outperformed most of the other markets even in an environment of terrorism." she says.
People must not lose sight of their long term goals by worrying about the present political problems.
But she predicts there will be some people who want to pull all their money out of whatever investment vehicle they have planned.
"I guarantee that we will get the question - "Should I put my money in gold"?"
Gold is one of those commodities traditionally considered a safe haven, she explains. "Some people did very well in gold in 2002, but I don't think it's a good long term option."
For the most part, she says, people are investing for the long term. For retirement, for education costs and for growth.
"If they put the money in the bank it won't give sufficient return for the future."
Mrs. Bolden thinks that now is an excellent time to start building a portfolio: "With many of the world's most admired and profitable companies trading at multi-year lows, the opportunity for long term investors to build a portfolio at discount prices has rarely been better."
"The S&P 500 is down some 40 percent over the past three years and stocks are definitely undervalued in certain sectors."
She thinks that GE represents a good bargain: "It's a well diversified company and definitely underpriced at the moment."
Underlining their positive outlook, Emerald Financial Group yesterday launched a new research service to help individuals trade more successfully.
'The Wellinvested' research service allows subscribers to build their own investment strategy. "The software demystifies the trading strategies used by Wall Street professionals."
By logging-on via the internet they can choose a strategy and then receive daily e-mails with guidance on implementing those strategies for any number of stocks.
While this new service is aimed at sophisticated clients who are already experienced investors, Mrs. Bolden believes that for most investors, a fund is the best way to start investing. "For most people, it's not possible to get sufficient spread from buying individual stocks. If you were to have $10,000 for example, you would only really get exposure to about three or four companies."
Emerald is able to sift through the thousands of funds available and select the best one for their clients.
They sit a client down, find out their investment goals and help them find the fund which best suits their needs. "Time frame and attitude to risk is very important." says Mrs. Bolden.
She says that Bermudians are typically investment savvy and well read when it comes to money matters. As an investment professional she can add value by helping them to cut through the massive amount of information out there when it comes to choosing an investment vehicle.
As independent investment advisors, Emerald are not part of some large financial services organisation like Fidelity or Schroeders, and can advise on any fund that a client has heard about and is considering investing in. However, they do have relationships with several funds that they have selected to recommend on the basis of strong past performance.
Asked whether they are really "matchmakers" whose role is mainly to find the right fit, Mrs. Bolden says "It's more than just matching up."
They don't give out investment warnings, but they send out a quarterly newsletter and hope to keep their clients informed.
"When September 11 happened, we sent out a letter to certain of our clients recommending that people moved from equities into fixed income."
That was good advice, she says: "We preserved a lot of value for our clients."
"No one can predict the future, not one of us here. But if you have knowledge, historical perspective and faith, you can make better decisions."