As I forecast, the discussion of domicile in the past couple of weeks did, indeed, scare the bejeepers out of quite a number of people. Up and down the country (or, more accurately, across) could be heard the gnashing of teeth and the wailing of souls faced with an ugly truth. Marriages fell apart, the murder rate rose, and I now dare not walk down the street for fear of being pelted with rotten fruit and abuse.

I exaggerate, but still: now what do I do? Like a musician whose last recording spent six months at number one, whatever I write this week can only be a comparative let-down. So, I thought I'd write about the great fear stalking the world: recession.

Guess what? Recessions need not be as bad as this one is being painted. It is akin to letting some air out of tyres that are over-inflated, or like losing weight after Christmas. Recession is a necessary and natural part of economic life, and dealing with it is just part of being alive.

I arrive late to the discussion of recession. Everyone else and his daft mother-in-law have had their say. I have the advantage of having read what everyone has said, but, like them, the disadvantage of knowing nothing. The one great truth in this life is that no one knows anything. That is what makes it all so fascinating.

We do know that the US economy is not in recession, yet. End of story. Turn the page and start reading about whatever they have on the other pages of the newspaper (I would not know.) Well, OK, there is a little more to be said.

To be in recession, the US economy (the only one that matters; the others are all sub-sets) would have to recede, i.e. overall economic activity would have to reduce, for two quarters in a row. In the fourth quarter of 2007, the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 0.8 percent. The US economy not being in a recession, however, is not much of a story for news people to report. It's a bit like "Dog doesn't bite man". As a result, many news people (other than those who work for this newspaper, of course) make up the news. In that no one knows anything, those who make up economic forecasts masquerading as news stories have no choice but to bring their own bias to bear until hard statistical data is available.

That is why the phrase "consider the source" was invented. If Fidel Castro said the US economy was in recession, you would know better than to believe him. So we turn to reliable news outlets, such as the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), for our information.

Unfortunately, the BBC hates the USA much, much more than Fidel Castro hates the USA. The BBC has a TV channel called BBC World, which especially detests George W Bush. So, at the end of February, when President Bush said, quite rightly, that according to all known facts, the US was not in a recession, the BBC reported his comments in passing and then, at great length, called him a liar.

I will paraphrase what business reporter Manisha Tank said, immediately after reporting "Mr. Bush's opinion" that the US economy was not in recession. "Announcements of economic activity are always adjusted later, when more facts are known," Ms Tank said, more or less. "So the jury is out on whether that 0.8 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2008 is true or not. If it is adjusted downwards and becomes less than zero, and if the first quarter report for 2008 also shows negative growth, the US will be in a recession." If and if. News is: "Mrs. Trott's refrigerator blew up and now she walks with a limp". BBC news is: "The world was shaken to its core after a mysterious explosion at Mrs. Trott's house turned out to be the fault of a refrigerator made in the US, where George Bush is President. Maybe this means that your refrigerator is going to blow up. Maybe it already has. And, boy, are you in trouble whether it does or does not, because George Bush still has a year in office." The sub-text to the BBC news is: "Americans are stupid". The sub-text to the sub-text is: "They're stupid and much richer than we are, and so we are doubly green with jealousy". So, if you want to know what a bunch of impoverished snobs hope is happening to the US economy, and why it is George Bush's fault, watch BBC World.

Man, have I wandered from the point. This may be some kind of record. I have completely forgotten what I was talking about. Now I will have to buy the paper to find out.

Recession. That was it.

The earliest we could know for sure that the US was in a recession would be April 30, 2008, when the figures for the first quarter of 2008 are released. If they were to show backward movement in the quarter, and if the fourth quarter of 2007 were indeed revised down below zero, then we would be in a recession (assuming that the first quarter results remained negative when they were revised later). But, if the fourth quarter results hold up, the earliest a recession is likely to be reportable is July 31, when we have the results for the first two quarters. No one knows what is going to happen in July, so now we must start to make assumptions about assumptions. Let us not.

Instead, let us ask whether being in a recession is automatically a bad thing. A recession is as natural a part of the economic cycle as exhaling is part of the breathing cycle. Recessions do not occur as often as exhalations, but they occur with regularity, usually about once every seven years.

My line, expounded here before, is that you should pay only limited attention to global affairs. Behave economically in a recession exactly as you would in a boom. Save something every week or every month, without fail. That way, if the recession bites, and your metaphorical refrigerator blows up, you will have something to fall back on.