A leading provider of global research and analysis is predicting bleak outlooks for near future.

Moody's Investors Service has revised downwards its Lloyd's Market forecasts especially for the open years of account 1997, 1998, and 1999.

A profit of just 1.4 per cent is now forecast for 1999 in comparison to the 12.1 percent return recorded by Lloyd's in 1995.

"The downward movement of our forecasts has resulted from deteriorating syndicate loss ratios and very testing market conditions,'' said Mark Hewlett, Managing Director of Moody's European Property & Casualty and Reinsurance Division.

"Unfortunately we do not foresee any immediate improvement in insurance rates for most business classes, a key determinant of profitability, due to the large amounts of excess capital remaining in world insurance markets.'' Additional figures contained within the Autumn 1998 "Analysis'' report reflect how extremely competitive market conditions have adversely affected profitability outlooks for trading syndicates. Moody's has now placed loss warnings on 32 per cent and 30 per cent of syndicates underwriting in 1998 and 1999 respectively.

The latest global Lloyd's forecasts indicate small market profits of 2.2 per cent and 1.4 per cent of capacity -- in 1998 and 1999 respectively -- assuming a normal incidence of loss.

However, Moody's believes that both year's will be rendered loss making if impacted by a significant catastrophe.

In the major market sectors, 1999 is forecast to be Motor's fifth consecutive loss year. Ironically, it is the only sector showing signs of improvement.

Last year's forecast loss of 9.8 per cent is considered to be the bottom of the current Motor underwriting cycle.

And the Aviation sector -- which has suffered recent satellite and airline losses -- is expected to move into the red for the first time since 1992.

Respective losses for the two years are 0.7 and 0.8 respectively.

1997 is now considered borderline with a forecast profit of 0.6 per cent.

The Marine sector continues to show the severest reduction in profitability with profits expected to fall from the 21.6 per cent made in 1995 to just 4.4 per cent in 1999.

And finally Non-Marine, the largest sector within the Lloyd's market, is forecast to produce small profits of 2.2 and 1.5 per cent for 1998 and 1999.

The 1995 profit for the same sector was 8.6 per cent.