Deal of the century? Try deal of the week
Big. Bigger. Biggest.
In a year of megadeals, giant corporations are seeking to become even more dominant worldwide players. What would've been "deals of the century'' in the past have become merely deals of the month -- or even the week.
Recent examples dramatise a mad scramble for intimidating size: Roche-Holding Ltd., huge Swiss drug manufacturer, will pay $11 billion to acquire Bermuda-based Corange Ltd., parent company of the world's No. 2 diagnostics company, Boehringer Mannheim GmbH of Germany.
AT&T Corp. has discussed a possible $50 billion-plus merger with SBC Communications .Inc., owner of Southwestern Bell and Pacific Telesis Group.
It's the potential granddaddy of all deals, if it actually comes together and regulators give their blessing.
CUC International Inc., enormous direct marketer, agreed to buy HFS Inc., the travel and real estate franchiser known for Ramada Inn, Century 21 and Avis, in a $10.9 billion stock swap.
Grand Metropolitan PLC and Guinness PLC, two British liquor-industry powerhouses, proclaimed a stock swap deal that valued Guinness, the smaller of the two, at $19.3 billion.
Expect the activity to continue, with pharmaceuticals and telecommunications among the leaders in the onslaught.
"Seven of the top ten pharmaceutical companies in the world were formed from acquisitions and mergers, and all seven would tell you they're pretty happy and their mergers successful,'' said Jeffrey Chaffkin, pharmaceutical analyst with PaineWebber Inc. "Expect continuing horizontal mergers in this fragmented business because they make sense.'' Somewhat smaller drug companies such as Schering-Plough and Warner-Lambert might be considered takeover candidates because they fit all the prerequisites, Chaffkin noted. But it's primarily due to sustainable earnings growth and rising market share that he recommends them both, along with stock of Pfizer Inc.
The drug industry has had a merger every two or three years for the last 30 years, generally caused by one of the involved companies running out of research and facing a declining product pipeline.
"Smaller specialty companies are finding it more difficult to achieve objectives when pitted against large, powerful drug companies,'' pointed out Richard Vietor, pharmaceutical analyst with Merrill Lynch. "Rather than mergers between big guys, you may find second- or third-tier companies merging to get stronger.'' Vietor, along with Chaffkin, advises investors against playing the drug-stock takeover game. He prefers stock in companies with the best research and product pipelines because this is a health-care era in which innovation is rewarded. He's a fan of Warner-Lambert and Pfizer, his other favourites the fast-growers Eli Lilly, Bristol-Myers Squibb and Merck.
The AT&T/SBC talks, which face major hurdles in forging an agreement and more hurdles getting Justice Department approval, have raised eyebrows in an industry already brimming with change.
"On the one level, I think you'll see more telecommunications consolidation through mergers,'' predicted William Deatherage, telecommunications analyst with Bear Stearns. "But, on the other level, you'll see more industry fragmentation because of new entrants.'' In 1984, the United States separated long-distance telephone business from local in a regulatory and political compromise, Deatherage noted, yet the marriage of long-distance and local "is quite natural''. He expects more mergers of major local exchange carriers. With ample precedent for two Bells to merge, why not three or four firms? Potential telecom combinations are endless and mind-boggling. For example, Southern New England Telecom, serving Connecticut, is a "donut hole'' in the territory of the merging Bell Atlantic/NYNEX. Cincinnati Bell is on the border of Ameritech and BellSouth, while Aliant Techsystems is in the middle of the US West region. A good fit for US West would seem to be SBC Communications.
Some experts suggest a marriage of Ameritech and BellSouth.
Deatherage's current buy recommendations are the merging firms Bell Atlantic and NYNEX, as well as SBC, which recently merged with Pacific Telesis. Also considered attractive are Ameritech, BellSouth, US West and GTE Corp., though he's neutral on major long-distance carriers.
"I don't think an AT&T/SBC deal is likely to go through right now,'' predicted Anna-Maria Kovacs, telecom analyst with Janney Montgomery Scott, who currently has no buy recommendations in the industry. "It's most likely three years down the road before you'll see mergers of long-distance and local carriers, and I really don't think AT&T will be the first in line.'' Andrew Leckey, a financial news anchor on the CNBC cable television network, answers questions only through the column. Address questions to Andrew Leckey, "Successful Investing,'' Suite 76, 367 N. Maple Ave., Ridgewood, NJ 07450, or send e-mail to successinv(at)aol.com.
