Log In

Reset Password

Picking stocks is a gamble game shows

Called the Investment DartBoard, it pits the Investment Experts versus the Darts (yes, the Dart stocks are really chosen by flinging darts at a list of stock tables) versus the Readers.

once a month.

Called the Investment DartBoard, it pits the Investment Experts versus the Darts (yes, the Dart stocks are really chosen by flinging darts at a list of stock tables) versus the Readers.

This scenario is actually set up as a contest, the theme of which, you guessed it, can you do better then randomly choosing some stock.

The prevailing theory is that the stock market is nothing more than a dart board.

At the end of December 2000, ten years into this monthly contest, The Darts took all honours, if you can call having negative chimes of an average loss of (11.8 percent). The Professionals brought in the worst losses in the contest's ten year history (53.2 percent), one expert being down a negative (90 percent) and the Readers were close with an average loss of (43.1 percent).

I honestly felt a little sorry for the "so-called experts'' who had the courage to hang their reputations out there (and their pictures).

It is, however, telling in a small paragraph at the end of the article that over time, in these last ten years, the professionals have beaten the market quite comfortably.

When the average investor, or those contemplating investing for the first time, reads this type of story it is enough to `put you permanently off your feed'.

(We lived next to dairy farmers for 25 years.) However, there are several things to consider here about the DartBoard contest.

Each person was only allowed to choose one stock.

Most of the choices were in the technology sector and were smaller volatile companies; this has not been the best of times for so many, many of these small capitalised stocks, many of them now face being 'delisted' as their price per share falls below $1.

It is also interesting to note that the professional group playing for the next six months are picking big, well known companies, namely, GlaxoSmithKline (drugs), At&T (interesting pick, someone still believes in them), JP Morgan Chase (financials) and surprise, Tyco International (a diversified industrial company that makes health care products, fire-protection and security systems and electronic components).

These companies are large multi-billion dollar conglomerates; stable, diversified, fairly cash rich, boring, and still capable of growing at a double-digit rate per year (that is more than 9.99 percent) except AT&T which is shakily carrying very heavy liabilities on its balance sheet.

Another lesson, not all well-known companies are immune from failure either; Xerox today is struggling for mere subsistence markets.

If you would like to submit a stock to the WSJ dart board game beginning in early February, send an email to dartboard y interactive.wsj.com Maybe you will be lucky and beat the pros.