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Dollar hits 6-month record vs the Euro

NEW YORK(Reuters) - The US dollar jumped to a six-month high against the euro on Friday, buoyed by another drop in oil prices and growing views the US economic slowdown may be bottoming while growth in the euro zone stalls.

The dollar posted a fifth week of gains against the euro as investors shifted their view on the global economy's ability to withstand a downturn initiated in the US. The greenback has rallied nearly six percent against the euro zone single currency this month.

"We are reassessing the numbers and outlooks in other countries. As a result of that, the US economy looks relatively better and the US dollar is certainly responding," said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

Data in the US on Friday showed an unexpected rise in manufacturing activity in the New York state area and an increase in industrial output and consumer confidence.

By contrast, reports on Thursday showed the euro zone economy contracted in the second quarter for the first time since the common currency's inception.

The Bank of England this week also warned of economic slowdown ahead and Japan said its economy contracted in the second quarter at the sharpest rate in seven years.

In late afternoon trading in New York, the euro was down 0.9 percent on the day at $1.4681 , after falling as low as $1.4660, the lowest since February, according to Reuters data.

For the week, the dollar has gained about 1.7 percent versus the euro.

The dollar index , which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of six currencies, struck a seven-month high of 77.268. It last traded up 0.7 percent at 77.183.

The greenback also reached a seven-and-a-half month high at 110.66 yen , and the dollar's rally knocked an already floundering sterling to two-year lows near $1.85 .

"The...underlying tone of the US dollar is changing quite dramatically," Mr. Watt said. "Once you get the sense that a bear market is over, you're going to get pretty sharp moves at the beginning of a new market."

Goldman Sachs on Thursday said it was time to let go of its 10-year dollar bearish stance, revising its forecast for several US dollar pairings. It now sees the euro falling to $1.45 in three months. The euro should drop further to $1.40 over the next 12 months, the bank said.

A steep drop in commodity prices also has lent support to the dollar because it helps ease concern about the US economic outlook in the second half of the year.

Crude oil prices slid further on Friday and ended 1.1 percent lower at $113.77 per barrel.

Crude oil has fallen more than 20 percent from the all-time high above $147 set in July, while the Reuters-Jeffries/CRB index, a global index of commodity prices, has slid almost 18 percent from its July peak.

"Euro/dollar is going to be correlated with oil's trading," said Kevin Chau, currency analyst at IDEAGlobal in New York. "As crude goes down, the euro is going to go down."

On the data front, the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its index of consumer confidence edged up to 61.7 in early August from 61.2 in late July.

Other reports showed US industrial production edged up 0.2 percent in July and a gauge of manufacturing in New York state rose by a surprising amount in August. "The (US) data has not been outstanding, but it has been positive enough not to stand in the way of those dollar gains," said Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo Bank in New York.

"A lot of the dollar shorts have been taken off the table by now."

Analysts at BNP Paribas said the dollar rally now looks extremely over-extended, particularly against the Australian dollar, sterling and the euro.

"We would now suggest caution with long USD positions given the increasing risk of a near-term correction," the firm writes in a note.