First it was the UBP’s Jamahl Simmons, then it was the PLP’s Randy Horton. It seems the party branches in safe seats are no longer willing to hand candidates a job for life just because they once impressed a handful of members years ago.

And under Bermuda’s new political set-up, which abolished large dual-MP seats for smaller single seats, today’s representatives are feeling the pressure.

In the last election, six MPs won by double figure margins while two won by just eight votes — so, annoy one large family in your seat and you could find yourself out on your ear.

St. David’s MP Suzann Roberts-Holshouser admitted she lived in a constant state of insecurity after scraping in by 15 votes last time despite canvassing for two years prior.

She knows the kisses and hugs and words of encouragement from voters can be deceptive and often people don’t want to admit they are supporting the other side.

Mrs. Roberts-Holshouser used to work from seven ‘til three to leave the last two hours of the day for helping constituents who might need her at meetings with financial assistance or housing clerks. “I go with them,” she said.

Now she has changed jobs because of the demands of her seat and has taken on a post which gives her greater flexibility to get everything done.

Asked if the parochial demands were outweighing the national picture, Mrs. Roberts-Holshouser admitted it was a difficult balance but she would not be in her position if not for the people of St. David’s.

Currently the United Bermuda Party’s spokesperson for Social Rehabilitation she said a lot of her work in that role was behind the scenes.

In his ten-year parliamentary career, Dale Butler has gone from representing one the PLP’s safest seats in the old dual-seat system to one of its tightest under the redrawn electoral map, which he won by 38 votes last time around.

But he said he approached both in the same manner — hitting the streets to canvass the day after being elected.

Now in election hyper-drive, he spends five days a week canvassing and estimates at least 15 hours a week is dedicated to constituency matters. But around eight to ten hours a week is normal.

Work includes firing off a barrage of newsletters, following up constituents’ concerns in Government and holding meetings, workshops and fetes.

He puts it this way: “In 2003 when people came to vote almost consistently whites looked me right in the face and said you were the best MP we could ever ask for — but you are in the wrong party.”

But he never knows whether the praise translates to a vote once they are in the polling booth. Despite all his best efforts, occasionally a voter will say they haven’t seen Mr. Butler so he makes a point of going around to visit them. “And 99.9 percent of the time they have nothing to say when I get there,” he said.

Mr. Butler believes his hard work pays off and he could hold the seat even if the PLP became wildly unpopular. “I am not the perfect politician, but I think I have been very effective,” he said. Clearly word is getting around as his regular constituency sessions attract all sorts.

“A lot of the time they are not even from my constituency. Three to five people actually come from my zone while ten are from everyone else’s seats.”

Liberal commentator Tom Vesey said the parties are now showing more edginess with their MPs because of increased electoral pressures.

“Suddenly the parties are going to get really impatient with MPs who haven’t been doing everything to win back their own seats or to help their party win,” he said. “This includes having a healthy relationship with the people in the local branch. And the parties are probably getting frustrated with MPs in marginal constituencies who aren’t canvassing.”

He said voters in tight marginals have greater control over their MPs. “But it works both ways — a good MP ought to be able to have a small constituency eating out of the palm of his hand. He should know so many of his constituents, have been involved in their lives so much, and helped them out so many times, that they wouldn’t dream of voting against them.

“Of course, this is a lot easier if the MP actually lives in the constituency, and is actively involved in it, shops at the same grocery stores, goes to the same churches and that kind of thing — which may be a problem for Randy Horton right now.”

Former United Bermuda Party Leader Wayne Furbert, who has always fought a marginal seat with varying degrees of success, said this election will come down to constituencies.

“A lot of elections nowadays are personal. People are tired of politicians and political parties overall,” he said.

“It comes down to whether they can trust a certain candidate to deliver for them. It is them who they are putting faith into — that’s why they are either put in or booted out. You have to deliver.”

Furbert welcomed the new willingness of local parties to assert themselves against under-performing MPs.

“I don’t ever remember anyone challenging a sitting MP to get him out. If the members are unsatisfied they can get involved — remove an MP or put another person in.

“We have got to be more open than ever to the people. MPs are not the be all and end all. We are servants of the people. Democracy should be as open as possible.

“Areas are very tight. When I was leader, and I am sure Michael does it now, we pushed MPs to work because constituents are not as tolerant to MPs as they used to be.

“If you are not going to work or perform, those marginals are going to sneak up on you so fast you won’t know what happened to you.

“In St. George’s, where Jennifer Smith won, we lost by eight and in number four Tim Smith lost by eight — that’s four people changing their minds in each case. Call a family meeting at night with 20 of you — you can really make things happen.”

It means party organisation is even more vital for getting the supporters out to vote.

“If the committee in number four had got all our supporters out last time Renée (Webb) would never have won,” Mr. Furbert said. Mr. Furbert works his seat — as does Derrick Burgess, the PLP MP for the neighbouring Hamilton Parish seat. Mr. Furbert said the pair resembled the split ticket days of UBP MP Hackie Davis and the National Liberal Party’s Gilbert Darrell in Hamilton East in their dedication to parish pump politics.

“Derrick works hard, although he doesn’t have a marginal area. People in Hamilton Parish recognise it’s Wayne and Derrick there for them all the time — attending church and functions.

“You go to the ones that are major. I have missed a few. You don’t have time to go to all of them. But you try to go to as many as possible. I missed a church service the other Sunday — but I was at another church function. But I am sure Derrick was there.”

“If I show up at a church function I know he’s there. If I don’t show up he thinks ‘Wayne must be sick’. If he’s not there I think ‘Derrick must be away’.”

UBP supporter and political commentator Christian Dunleavy said in a place like Bermuda the saying that ‘all politics is local’ is magnified, particularly under single-seats.

“I think that now that both parties have had time to govern and be judged, the idea that national PLP vs UBP campaigns are desirable is running its course and people want to know from their MPs ‘what have you done for me lately?’”

Mr. Dunleavy said the the previous dual-seat system might have allowed some candidates to ride the coattails of their running-mate.

“Now you’re on your own and you’ve got to double the output. If you aren’t active in your area and don’t tend to your branch, you can and will be replaced. That’s the way it should be.

“The last decade has seen too many politicians who think that once they’re elected they have a perpetual claim to a seat. Our system is designed from the bottom-up. So in that sense, the bigger picture is determined after the fact.”

And he said voters would have a clear choice in the election between Premier Ewart Brown’s presidential style and the UBP leadership of Michael Dunkley who is embracing the climate of local representation with a huge gamble as he leaves his relatively safe seat of Devonshire East to take on the PLP in Smith’s North, where he hopes constant doorstep campaigning can overturn a 123-vote majority.

“One of the questions that voters should ask themselves is ‘Who is my candidate loyal to?’ If the answer is the residents of their constituency, I think they’ll do well. But if it’s some elitist party hierarchy then I imagine the result will be a rejection. No one wants to be taken for granted. And few want a disinterested under-performing prima-donna of an MP. My sense is that the party dynamic is fizzling out and it’s back to local representation. People have tired of being asked to support one party or another at the expense of a good committed constituency MP.”

Mr. Vesey, however, believes doorstep campaigning and a local presence can make a huge difference — but it has its limits.

“In a constituency that is close, hard local work can make all the difference in the world. But most people, in most constituencies, will just vote for the party they want to win.”

And Mr. Vesey doesn’t believe politics is getting more local. “After all, fewer people have close ties to their neighbourhood, attend their local church, drink at their local club or even attend their local school,” he said.

“However, I think individual voters are becoming more independent and assertive... less likely to follow their leaders blindly, less likely to automatically respect their local MP and more likely to have their own opinions on the issues of the day — and let those opinions be known.”

Insecurity — it goes with the territory