A new study estimates that spending on health in Bermuda will top $1 billion by 2017 — and questions whether the Island's economy can sustain the growth.

The National Health Accounts Report 2010, released yesterday by Bermuda Health Council (BHeC), details how funding of and spending on health rose rapidly between the years 2004 and 2009.

Public sector health expenditure was more than $260 million in the financial year 2009, with the majority of it spent by Bermuda Hospitals Board on running the Island's hospital system. The amount compares to almost $166 million in 2004.

Private sector health expenditure went from more than $212 million in 2004 to almost $296 million in 2009.

Spending on overseas health care rose the fastest by, on average, more than 20 percent annually over the five year period — from nearly $42 million in 2004 to $86.5 million in 2009.

Meanwhile, last year, the average amount spent on health per person was $8,661 — a figure representing more than nine percent of the previous year's per capita income of $92,818.

The study says that since 11 percent of Bermuda's households were estimated to be earning below $36,605 a year in 2008, "for Bermuda's low income population cohort, the cost of health care may be a significant financial challenge".

The authors of the study conclude that the figures call into question the sustainability of the current rate of growth.

"Health system finance and expenditure grew at a compounded annual growth rate of 8.1 percent during the period 2004 to 2009," they write.

"Continuation of the 8.1 percent average compounded rate of growth will see Bermuda's total health system expenditure grow to just over $1 billion by 2017.

"With this in mind, Bermuda's health system policymakers and planners will need to ascertain whether the Island's economy will be able to keep pace to support this trajectory of health system expenditure, and, if needed, implement strategies to prevent an unsustainable level of increase relative to GDP (gross domestic product) growth."