Unemployment is likely to get worse before it gets better with further job losses expected in a variety of sectors, predicts Bermuda College economist Craig Simmons.

And experts agree that when recovery begins job numbers will be the last thing to improve.

In each of the last 13 months, retail sales among clothing stores have declined while it's a similar story for hardware stores, car dealerships and service stations, said Mr. Simmons.

He told The Royal Gazette: "We should expect further job losses in these sectors."

And inflation-adjusted first quarter business services receipts are down by more than 20 percent year-on-year indicating problems in the international business sector.

Resident incomes earned from international business increased in nominal terms, but not after accounting for first quarter inflation of 4.1 percent.

Most job losses in the international business sector should come from firms engaged in financial services, whilst job losses in insurance should be considerably smaller, predicted Mr. Simmons.

"It's likely that unqualified accountants as well as finance managers and officers will be the first to see terminations."

The silver lining to Bermudian employment is that about half of those jobs are held by non-Bermudians, according to the August 2009 Employment Brief, added Mr. Simmons. "We can only hope that a significant portion of job losses can be exported as work permits are not renewed."

Mr. Simmons said employment is generally one of the last economic indicators to respond to the recovery phase of the business cycle. "Firms can cope with a rising demand for their goods and services without having to employ more people. They can offer overtime to existing employees or take on part-timers if they are unsure that the recovery is for real."

Bermuda Employers' Council executive director Martin Law revealed figures from the Bermuda Omnibus Survey indicated that seven percent of households report a redundancy in that household over the first six months of 2009. "This is a significant number. And the prospects for 2010 are also not good with the construction industry and tourism projecting further shrinkage, with retail and hospitality continuing to struggle because of reduced consumer spending.

"We are in a serious situation that will continue for another year at least recovery in jobs always lags behind economic recovery."

He said the BEC had urged its members to explore alternatives to full blown redundancy.

"There has been considerable success here in retaining jobs by installing things like a reduced work week, consolidating tasks and jobs, reducing or freezing pay levels.

"Although such measures have an adverse effect on the individuals, it is better for them and the economy than losing jobs. There is a widespread acceptance that the economic downturn is real and that jobs are threatened. I do not believe we have bottomed out yet. This will likely occur next year."

Mr. Law said there is some element of a safety cushion for Bermudians with a high number of jobs being held by guest workers.

"These are some of the first to go, and this is happening. This is not a simple saviour though, a lot of jobs held by guest workers are critical to the continued survival of enterprises, so these will not go."

What the experts say

l 1,000 jobs could go by end of year

• Job losses could hit 2,000 by 2010

• Building industry could lose 20 percent of its workforce

• Seven percent of homes hit by redundancy

• Jobs the last thing to recover once upturn begins