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Bermudian workforce to fall as population ages

The loss of 1,700 Bermudian jobs in the last five years is part of a demographic trend, revealed Finance Minister Paula Cox, which will see the local workforce decline by 8,000 in the next 36 years.

She said Bermudian workers will decline from 40,000 to 32,000 by the year 2042.

In a bid to pre-empt attacks by the UBP who have slated Government over the declining number of jobs held by Bermudians, Ms Cox said it was not due to failed economic policy.

"It is important for observers to understand the underlying demographic factor driving and shaping this trend.

"Due to declining birth rates, the size of the Bermudian work force is shrinking. This means there are more Bermudians retiring from the workforce compared to the number of young Bermudians entering the workforce for the first time.

"We also know projections of the work force over the next 36 years forecast a decline from 40,000 to 32,000 by the year 2042.

"The trend is visible now as the number of jobs held by Bermudians has decreased from 28,900 in 2000 to 27,200 in 2005."

She said a thorough analysis of the changes in the employment levels of Bermudians suggests demographic factors and retirement at age 65 are the main reasons for the declining numbers of Bermudians in the work force.

"This is why Government is considering options that may provide those seniors who wish to continue working beyond age 65 the opportunity to do so."

Work permit numbers have risen under both the former United Bermuda Party Government and the Progressive Labour Party Government elected in 1998.

Statistics given to show that from first quarter 1994 to fourth quarter 1998, the last five years of the former Government, there was an increase in work permits from 5,976 to 7,947 ? an actual increase of 1,971.

From the first quarter 1999 to the fourth quarter 2004 the increase in the number of work permit holders was slower ? growing from 8,024 to 8,362 over 19 quarters or at a rate on average of about 70 per year.

Since the fourth quarter 2003 to the third quarter 2005 the numbers have grown steadily from 8,362 to 9,646 over a period of seven quarters ? a rate of about 730 a year.

A Government spokesman said: "It is to be noted that an enormous increase in construction workers followed Hurricane Fabian in September 2003.

"Therefore, from the first quarter 1998 through the third quarter 2005, that is, almost seven years of the PLP Government, there has been an increase from 7,947 to 9,646, an actual increase of 1,699."

Asked if the decline in the Bermudian workforce would necessitate a further growth in work permits, Home Affairs Minister Randy Horton said: "That's the challenge we have to look at.

"That's a part of the whole sustainable development strategy. We are looking very closely at the forecasts now.

"It is going to have some impact on the work permit situation, no question."

But he said technological advances had helped in Bermuda companies do business with fewer people which could reduce the need for new work permits.