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Bermuda at risk from Caribbean tsunamis

Bermudaphile: Dr. John Gosse visited Bermuda this week to talk to Dalhousie University alumni.

A professor from Dalhousie University has spoken of the natural hazards facing Bermuda including the risks of tsunamis coming from the Caribbean.

John Gosse addressed former graduates at an alumni reception at the Fairmont Hamilton Princess this week, speaking on tsunamis, the impact of hurricanes and research into geology and oceanography currently being undertaken at the Canadian university.

Associate Professor of Earth Sciences Dr. Gosse is a geochronologist (the science of determining the age of rocks, fossils, and sediments) and geomorphologist (the study of land forms and landscapes). He is director of the Dalhousie Geochronology Centre and Canada Chair in Earth System Evolution (the study of major changes in Earth's history).

Dr. Gosse told The Royal Gazette: "There's a lot of research talent in the sciences at Dalhousie with particular interest in working on various questions around Bermuda.

"It started in the 1970s with researchers trying to understand what caused the big seamount we are sitting on here now.

"A core well was drilled through, about four to five inches in diameter, and they sampled and learned about the chemistry of the salts.

"A previous researcher in the 1920s also coined the term Bermudite, which the 1970s researchers found, and now there's a volcanic rock which is named that."

Dr. Gosse said PhD students were also currently carrying out cave work, looking at how sea level rise has changed around the Bermuda seamount.

"They collect mud and sediment and pick out the fossil foram, and look at isotopes to determine temperature. They look at the amount of organic material coming through the caves, which at some times has been large.

"The last major climactic event the Atlantic experienced was the Little Ice Age about 600 years ago. Then there was a huge pulse of organic-rich sediment coming into the caves."

Dr. Gosse said scientists were also examining tsunami risks and scenarios in the Atlantic.

"In recent years tsunami-type questions have come to the fore, with researchers saying there is evidence of a mega-tsunami in Bermuda.

"It may be true, but it may also be that sea levels were 21 metres higher 400,000 years ago, in a warmer inter-glacial time."

Dr. Gosse said he felt there was more risk of a tsunami threat to Bermuda from the Caribbean than the Canary Islands.

"Tsunamis are usually triggered by earthquakes. There is a possibility that a flank of the (Cumbre Vieja) volcano on the Canary Islands (La Palma) could break off. But whether the Canary Islands are more susceptible than other coastlines is anybody's guess," he said.

"However I do think there is a significant tsunami risk from the Caribbean.

"There are a lot of active tectonics down there and a substantial wave, of between two and four metres, could make it here in only a few hours.

Dr. Gosse said around the world there have been 52 recorded tsunamis triggered by earthquakes in the last 400 years.

He said: "Any time you have something in such close proximity generating earthquakes and tsunamis, this is something we should be considering in terms of public awareness of natural disasters, and maybe on economic lines as well."

On hurricanes, Dr. Gosse said Bermuda weathered tropical storms well due to its construction methods.

"A three-day hurricane is going to create a lot of run-off especially in heavily urban areas, but in Bermuda the nature of your roofing and water collection systems prevents such run-off.

"Bermuda is unique. Most other places in the world have major difficulties in handling such storms, because the ground becomes saturated and the water goes everywhere, creating flooding."

Scientists at Dalhousie are also researching storm surge, under oceanographer Dr. Keith Thompson.

"They are looking at tide gauge records for the last 40 years to help predict future storm surge. If you can make predictions in terms of two to three days, this will give more warning for the people of Bermuda to anchor down."

There are as many as 400 Dalhousie alumni currently living in Bermuda. The Nova Scotia university presently has around 25 Bermudian students.