eased in recent months, according to Finance Minister the Hon. David Saul.

He said he does not dispute the gloomy analysis reported by Bank of Bermuda president Mr. Donald Lines yesterday.

But he noted that there had been a dramatic change in tourist arrival trends since the first three months of the year, when arrivals were down almost 20 percent from last year -- itself the worst year for tourist arrivals since 1973.

However, the picture changed sharply at the beginning of April, Dr. Saul noted. According to figures released this week, air visitor arrivals between April 1 and last Sunday were just 0.1 percent below the same period last year.

And total air visitor arrivals for the year are now running at 5.1 percent below last year.

"We were still down on last year, which was a terrible year,'' Dr. Saul said.

"...But that being said, the second quarter showed a dramatic improvement over the first quarter.

"Now we are looking forward to the third quarter, and there is a distinct possibility it can be as good as, or a little better than last year.

"But that all depends on how much Bermuda, and Bermudians as individuals, make tourists welcome. We must charm them in order that they will spend more money, and we must not go into things like strikes or threats of strikes, or annoy them at the airport on departure.'' Mr. Lines, in his quarterly report to the bank's shareholders, said that Bermuda had "destroyed over 1,500 jobs in tourism and related industries as a result of industrial disputes during the past five years.'' And Mr. Lines pointed to figures indicating the lowest levels in recent years for tourist spending, company registrations, credit growth and retail sales.

Dr. Saul agreed that virtually every economic statistic looks bad -- with the notable exception of the Island's inflation rate.

Inflation for the 12 months to May dipped to 2.4 percent, compared with 2.6 percent for the previous month.

But just about everything else looks gloomy: tourist arrivals, spending, and sales figures.

"The statistics just stare you in the face right now,'' Dr. Saul said. "We can't afford things like strikes. We can't afford not to be charming to our tourists.'' Dr. Saul said he was optimistic that the US economy would show more substantial improvements after November's presidential election. "If we pull up our socks, next year will be a much better year.'' "We have had a bad year,'' Dr. Saul added. "But I think Bermudians have demonstrated a grasp of economics over the last three years that wasn't present three or four years ago. They basically understand that money doesn't grow on trees, that it doesn't come in a CARE package.

"People now, I think, have really become vitally aware of how the country works, and I think this is going to stand us in good stead as we turn the corner.''