Great sound at risk in big hurricane
Castle Harbour and the Great Sound would suffer most from storm surge.
The South Shore, on the other hand, would be less exposed.
These were two findings of the Emergency Measures Organisation revealed in an executive summary of its two-year storm surge report.
The Royal Gazette obtained a copy of the summary yesterday following complaints from Independent MP Mr. Stuart Hayward that information in the report, especially parts dealing with the effects of storm surge on boat moorings, was being withheld.
Mr. Hayward suggested that the information might affect insurance premiums and policies for boat owners. Acting Works Minister the Hon. Gerald Simons confirmed several insurance companies had contacted the Ministry seeking copies of the report.
The summary said that in the coastal area around Bermuda, surge would increase with water depth.
"The maximum surge is not strongly dependent upon the direction of approach of the hurricane, but does vary from place to place around the Island,'' the report said.
"The south coast is less exposed to surges than other locations within the fringing reefs: Surges of approximately 0.3, 0.6 and 0.9 meters are predicted for hurricane categories 1, 3 and 5, respectively -- although surges within Castle Harbour would be 65 percent larger.
"On the open coast within the fringing reefs, surges of approximately 0.8, 1.4 and 2 metres are predicted for hurricane categories 1, 3 and 5, respectively.
"Locations within the Great Sound are expected to suffer the greatest surges: Levels of approximately 1, 2 and 3 metres are predicted for hurricane categories 1,3 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane waves would raise the sea level even more, the report noted.
"Hurricane wave heights offshore would be ten to 20 metres high,'' it said.
"However, those approaching from the north and west are dramatically reduced in size by breaking over the fringing reefs. This is followed by continued wave growth within the reefs by local winds blowing over the Bermuda platform.'' For locations within the reefs, wave heights were predicted to be 1, 2 and 3 metres for hurricane categories 1,3 and 5 respectively. Waves within the bays and sounds would only be about half to two thirds as high.
Frequency of hurricanes was not specifically addressed in the report. But advice from the Ministry of Works showed that hurricanes of at least category one intensity -- 64-82 knots -- were expected to pass within 75 miles of Bermuda roughly once every four years.
More severe "direct hit'' hurricanes could occur on average every 12 years.
EMO head and Deputy Governor Mr. John Kelly, who released the summary, said he had no problem with the full report being made public once all official follow-up work to the report had been completed.
The EMO was in the process of sending letters and questionnaires to some 2,000 property owners reckoned to be at risk for flooding in the event of storm surge.
Thereafter, Mr. Kelly said, he would not mind the full one-inch-thick report being made available in the public library.
He added public presentations on the report were being planned by Government Information Services.
Mr. Simons had announced in Parliament that the report said some 2,000 properties at risk of flooding in the event of storm surge.
