The fate of the leadership of Bermuda effectively rests in the hands of around 150 people this month as party delegates will be lobbied and counter lobbied by various factions.

However the powerhouse branches in St. George?s, Somerset and Devonshire could hold the key to whether Premier Alex Scott hangs on or Dr. Brown or another challenger wins out.

One top party insider said the St. George?s branch was likely to remain loyal having supported homegrown candidate Jennifer Smith when she was toppled three years ago.

Devonshire too was likely to stick with the status quo having been the bedrock for past leaders Freddie Wade and Dame Lois Browne Evans.

However it is also Paula Cox?s stamping ground and could well launch her into the Island?s top office if the leadership contest is blown wide open.

Sandys also carries a high number of delegates but is now too close to call according the source.

A great deal could depend on who the three Lister MPs throw in their lot with although delegates are independent minded and not bound to follow the advice of their MPs when they cast their vote.

There are more than 100 delegates. Each branch is entitled to three delegates for its first 20 members. Another delegate is then added for every 20 members, or part thereof.

With PLP basic membership priced at just $2 it?s a simple task for organised factions to sign up extra members to boost the voting power of sympathetic branches so the next few weeks could see a scramble for recruitment.

One source said he thought Premier Scott would soon be eliminated based on dwindling support.

He said: ?It will be a close run thing between Ewart and Paula, assuming she comes forward. I am not sure the Premier will factor into it.?

However one highly-placed party insider said he believed it would be business as usual if there was a challenge.

He said: ?I think the membership is comfortable with the way things are going. I have not heard anything that suggest widespread dissatisfaction.?

However there are also 27 parliamentary votes to be picked up.

Last time it was the parliamentary block which helped trigger the challenge to Jennifer Smith while delegates had been more sympathetic to her performance.