Scientists are concerned that the Atlantic Ocean’s system of currents could be on the verge of collapse with potentially widespread consequences.

A scientific paper, published last week in Science Advances, projected a weakening of about 50 per cent in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a vast network of ocean currents, by the end of the century.

Valentin Portman, of the Inria Centre de Recherche Bordeaux Sud-Ouest in France, who led the latest research, told The Guardian: “We found that the Amoc is going to decline more than expected compared to the average of all climate models.

“This means we have an Amoc that is closer to a tipping point.”

Amoc transports warm and salty water north through upper ocean currents, including the Gulf Stream, which then cool and lose salinity before drifting south through deep water currents.

However, research has suggested that climate change could threaten the stability of Amoc with warmer oceans and melting ice sheets disrupting the flow of water, potentially causing air temperatures in areas of Europe to drop and increasing sea levels near North America.

While models broadly agree that Amoc will likely weaken before 2100, they have disagreed on how much weakening would take place because of differing climate models.

The paper proposed a comparison of several models focused on sea surface temperatures and salinity in a variety of key areas thought to potentially influence Amoc.

The result was an estimated weakening of Amoc by 51 per cent, plus or minus 8 per cent, by the end of the century.

The paper stated: “This substantial weakening could have important implications for future adaptation plans in various regions affected by the Amoc, around the Atlantic and in teleconnected regions.”

Stefan Rahmstorf, a professor at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said: “This is an important and very concerning result.

“It shows that the ‘pessimistic’ models, which show a strong weakening of the Amoc by 2100, are, unfortunately, the realistic ones, in that they agree better with observational data.

“I now am increasingly worried that we may well pass that Amoc shutdown tipping point, where it becomes inevitable, in the middle of this century, which is quite close.”

He added that the collapse of the Amoc should be avoided “at all costs”, warning that the most dramatic climate changes in the past 100,000 years have occurred when the Amoc switched to a different state.

A scientific paper published last year, after testing of a stalagmite in Leamington Caves, Hamilton Parish, suggested that the Gulf Stream may have shifted centuries ago.

The findings in Communications Earth and Climateshowed how researchers sought to create a temperature record dating back to 1449 using the chemical breakdown of the slow-growing formation, which rises from a cave’s floor.

Edward Foreman, Professor of Earth Sciences at Durham University and the lead author of that paper, said then: “The stalagmites record the chemical signals of the drip water that formed them.

“Cold weather tends to be windier, for example, leading to more sea spray and more seawater in the drip water. Analysing the chemistry of one of these stalagmites has thus enabled us to indirectly reconstruct past sea surface temperatures.”

He said that, based on the findings, sea surface temperatures around Bermuda cooled substantially for more than a century after 1720, while at the same time records along the East Coast of North America showed the opposite trend.

Mr Foreman said the shift suggested that the Amoc may have begun to weaken earlier than previously believed.

He added at the time: “This indicates that the system may be more sensitive than previously thought because it responded to natural melting of ice sheets earlier than expected.

“It could also mean the current Amoc is closer to a tipping point than expected.

“If a tipping point is crossed, the weakening would become self-perpetuating and lead to a near-complete shutdown of these vital ocean currents.”