Growing certainty of strong El Niño conditions have prompted Colorado State University to scale back its forecast for the 2026 hurricane season.

While the CSU Department of Environmental Science predicted in April that the season would feature about 13 named storms, a revised forecast delivered this week indicated 11.

The extended-range forecast said: “We have reduced our 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast and anticipate a below-normal season.

“Warm neutral ENSO [El Niño-Southern Oscillation] conditions are likely to transition to El Niño shortly, with a high potential for a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season.

“Sea-surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are near average but are cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

“We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear.”

While the forecast said there was a below-average probability of a major landfall in the US or the Caribbean, CSU warned that thorough preparations should still be made.

It estimated that the 2026 hurricane season would feature about 11 named storms, with five reaching hurricane strength, including two major hurricanes that reach at least Category 3.

The modern average for hurricane season is 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The forecast also estimated that there was a 24 per cent chance that a major hurricane would make landfall somewhere in the US and a 26 per cent chance that a major hurricane would track through the Caribbean.

Other weather forecasting bodies have also predicted that El Niño conditions would hinder Atlantic storm development this year, resulting in a season that is less active than usual.

Several organisations have predicted a below-average hurricane season including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, The Weather Channel, North Carolina State University, AccuWeather and Tropical Storm Risk.

However, the University of Arizona warned that warmer-than-normal sea temperatures could potentially fuel a busier season.