North Carolina State University and The Weather Channel have said El Niño conditions could help to bring a near or below-average hurricane season this year.

The Weather Channel issued its outlook last week for the coming hurricane season, forecasting a slightly quieter than average period with 12 named storms including six hurricanes, two of which are forecast to reach at least Category 3 strength.

The average for hurricane season is 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

The forecast, produced by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2, said storm development in the Atlantic is expected to be hindered by the return of El Niño conditions, which causes increased wind shear in the region.

Todd Crawford, the vice-president of meteorology at Atmospheric G2, said: “There is more limited downside than upside risk to the forecast given the low numbers, but concerns about a repeat of 2023 [stronger season than expected given emerging El Niño] are relatively low given the much cooler sea-surface temperatures this year.”

The forecast described the sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic this year as “mediocre” compared with the far above average temperatures reported in 2023.

However, the company warned that it only takes one powerful landfall storm to make the season active.

In another forecast, delivered on Wednesday, researchers at North Carolina State University predicted a near-average 2026 hurricane season with between 12 and 15 named storms.

Of those, the university predicted that six to nine would become hurricanes including two or three major hurricanes that reach at least Category 3 strength.

Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State, said storm development in the Caribbean Sea is expected to be slightly below recent averages, while development in the Gulf of Mexico will be near average.

The forecast stated: “The Caribbean Sea could see one to three named storms, with one to two hurricanes and the potential for one major hurricane.

“Recent [1994 to 2025] averages for the region are five named storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane.”

The forecasts were similar to preseason forecasts issued by Colorado State University, AccuWeather and Tropical Storm Risk, which have predicted slightly below average seasons. However, the University of Arizona warned that warm waters could fuel an above-average season.

Last April, The Weather Channel forecast that the 2025 season would include 19 named storms, including nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes, while NC State forecast between 12 and 15 named storms, including six to eight hurricanes and two or three major hurricanes.

By the end of the season, 13 named storms were recorded including five hurricanes, four of which became major hurricanes.

The 2026 hurricane season formally starts on June 1 and concludes on November 30, but storms can form outside the season.