El Niño forecast to limit Atlantic hurricane development
The US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast a quieter than average 2026 hurricane season.
NOAAs forecast, released on Thursday, said there was a 55 per cent chance of a below-normal season, a 35 per cent chance of a near-normal season and just a 10 per cent chance of an above-average season.
Overall, the agency estimated there would be between eight and 14 named storms including between three and six hurricanes, of which between one and three are expected to reach at least category 3 strength.
The modern average for hurricane season is 14 named storms including seven hurricanes, three of which become “major” hurricanes.
In their forecast, NOAA said that while the Atlantic is forecast to be slightly warmer than average, but El Niño conditions are expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, hindering storm growth.
Ken Graham, NOAA’s National Weather Service director, said: “Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold.
“That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
NOAA will update its seasonal outlook in early August, in advance of the normal peak of the hurricane season between September and October.
Several organisations have predicted a below average hurricane season including The Weather Channel, North Carolina State University, Colorado State University, AccuWeather and Tropical Storm Risk.
However, the University of Arizona warned that warmer than normal sea temperatures could potentially fuel a busier season.
Last May, NOAA forecast that the 2025 season would feature between 13 and 19 named storms, of which there would be between six and ten hurricanes and between three to five major hurricanes.
The 2025 season ended with 13 named storms and five hurricanes, four of which became major hurricanes.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, but storms can form outside of that window.
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