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Jobs, growth and austerity

The Association of Bermuda Insurers and Reinsurers (ABIR), perhaps because it is acutely aware that its members are guests, has historically been very careful not to say anything publicly that would be deemed to offend Government or Bermudians.In doing so, it has done Bermuda and the economy a grave disservice, because by holding back on saying publicly what its members frequently say privately, it has enabled Government to implement and defend policies that have put the Island’s economic well being at risk.Now, in a small way, ABIR seems to have found, to borrow a phrase from Premier Paula Cox, some testicular fortitude and has urged the Government to find ways to encourage senior executives of the companies to live in Bermuda.According to ABIR’s survey in yesterday’s Royal Gazette, employment in Bermuda among their 21 members has fallen for four straight years, and is down 116 from the 2007 peak of 1,782.That’s a decline of six percent and that may not seem a lot. But a substantial number were in senior management roles, and their departures means a loss of spending power in terms of their own salaries. More broadly, that costs jobs and hits the broader economy because it means fewer business trips and meetings in Bermuda.But it also means that “the hearts and minds” of the operations are no longer in Bermuda. Bermuda is therefore a less important part of these companies’ thinking and strategy. The next thing you know, the company is domiciled in Switzerland and that’s where the chief executive is too.In the long term, that means Bermuda is not a major financial domicile.ABIR clearly recognises this, and that’s why it is recommending that Bermuda do more to make senior executives feel welcome here.As has been stated previously, their presence does not take jobs from Bermudians; it creates jobs for Bermudians, both within their companies and without. And it is their loss that Bermuda is feeling now.The survey offsets the slightly encouraging news coming from the latest retail survey. That reports showed that sales in dollar terms rose for the second consecutive month in March, and revised figures for February suggest that retail sales are gaining strength compared to the admittedly dismal figures for 2011.It is worth noting that in real terms, sales remain below 2011’s, but the trend is encouraging.Nonetheless, today’s Mindmaps survey shows that confidence in the economy remains exceptionally low and in fact has deteriorated since the last survey in March.Confidence remains a critical factor and the polls seem to suggest that there is very little belief that the Government can turn things around.Electoral success for either party may well depend on which can make the case that it is best suited to lead a recovery. For the Progressive Labour Party to win that argument, it must still demonstrate that it understands basic economics and concedes that its policies have contributed to the downturn while performing the delicate balancing act of proving it has the policies to bring about a recovery.For the One Bermuda Alliance, it has done well in defining the causes of the recession, but it must do more to show how it will secure a lasting recovery.As demonstrated on Friday, the PLP wants to portray the OBA as cruel cutters of services while the OBA tries to show the PLP are spendthrifts.The growth versus austerity argument is indeed raging around the world. The answer, of course, is both. You can’t cut your way out of a recession without finding means of growth somewhere, but you can’t deficit and borrow your way out of it either.The answer has to lie in making Bermuda more competitive and efficient, without taking await the basic services people need to survive.Part of that lies in making sure Bermuda welcomes businesses. ABIR has said, very politely, that Bermuda needs to do better at that. Bermuda needs to listen.