Fifteen months into a new ministerial tenure, Bermuda's education system finds itself in an extraordinary position — millions of public dollars have not been spent, years of political capital have not been invested and thousands of families have not reorganised their children’s futures just to arrive at: “We are still gathering data.”

The question now confronting parents, teachers and the public is no longer whether education reform was perfect. It is far simpler – and far more serious.

What, exactly, is the plan?

Not the slogans. Not the “stakeholder engagement”. Not another emergency meeting called with less than 24 hours’ notice. The plan. The one parents enrol for, teachers build curriculum for and school leaders staff for.

Because right now Bermuda does not appear to have one. We have a pause, a reversal, a freeze, a consultant exit and a series of announcements that increasingly contradict one another.

In a country that has spent nearly a decade restructuring public education, that should alarm everyone.

The reform itself was not an accidental policy experiment. It was a Progressive Labour Party commitment repeated across three General Election campaigns – 2017, 2020 and 2025. The public were told Bermuda would move from a three-tier system to a two-tier system. Middle schools would be phased out. Parish primary schools would educate students from Primary 1 through Year 8. Signature senior schools would deliver Years 9 through 13 with specialised pathways aligned to Bermuda's future workforce needs.

Whether one agreed with the model or not, the direction was unmistakably clear.

Diallo Rabain remained Minister of Education from July 2017 until February 2025 – one of the longest continuous tenures in the portfolio in modern Bermudian political history. The rationale repeatedly offered by Government was continuity and stability in delivering the transformation.

Under that tenure, signature learning programmes launched at CedarBridge Academy and The Berkeley Institute in September 2022. Francis Patton and Purvis Primary became the first parish primary schools in September 2023. Elliot and Harrington Sound followed. Sandys Secondary was already being transformed into the island's third signature senior school for September 2025.

The money followed the policy. The 2024-25 education budget reached $149.2 million – at the time the largest education budget in Bermuda's history. The 2025-26 budget increased again to $156.5 million.

Meanwhile, the overseas consultancy guiding the transformation – Innovation Unit, later rebranded as Third Story – received more than $8.4 million in public funds between 2020 and 2025 to co-design and support implementation.

Parents made decisions around that road map. Teachers trained for it. School leaders reorganised staffing for it. HR departments hired around it.

And then, suddenly, the road map disappeared.

After the February 2025 General Election, David Burt, the Premier, reshuffled the Cabinet. Mr Rabain was moved to the Ministry of the Cabinet Office and Digital Innovation. Crystal Caesar was appointed to the Senate and made Minister of Education.

What followed has not resembled continuity.

In June 2025, the minister announced a system-wide safety review after violent incidents at CedarBridge and Sandys Secondary. She told the public she would be "doing things differently".

By September 2025, she formally rescinded the entire published timeline for school openings and closures beyond September 2025.

In December, the Third Story consultancy contract ended, with the Government stating Bermuda now possessed the "data, models and lessons needed to move forward independently".

Yet, within weeks, the plan became more unclear than ever.

In January 2026, principals were summoned to a meeting with less than 24 hours' notice. A proposal was presented as being "co-signed" by principals despite reflecting only a subset of views. Parents across multiple schools were simultaneously called into emergency meetings.

The proposal effectively restored a version of the three-tier system under different terminology: parish primary schools reverting to P1-P6, with "lower secondary" campuses handling Years 7 through 9.

On January 24, Francis Patton staff, students and parents protested roadside. The Bermuda Union of Teachers publicly described the roll-out as “a massive failure”. The minister responded that “no decisions have been made”.

By February 10, the BUT publicly stated the minister had refused direct consultation with teachers since January 19, noting that: “Hearing from principals cannot substitute consulting with teachers.”

Nine days later came another reversal: parents of Year 6 and 7 students were told they could either keep children in parish primary schools or move them into middle schools, beginning September 2026.

This is not stability. Stability is when the plan in September resembles the plan in January.

The deepest problem, however, is one few in the public conversation are naming directly. The minister has repeatedly argued that “parents are voting with their feet” by choosing middle schools over parish primary schools for Years 7 and 8. But that argument collapses under the weight of one unavoidable fact: the back end of the reform was never fully implemented.

Under the original model, parents were expected to keep children in parish primary schools through Year 8 before transitioning into signature senior schools beginning in Year 9.

But the full Year 9 transition under the two-tier system never materialised.

Sandys Secondary opened signature programming in September 2025 but the complete island-wide Year 9 pathway across all three senior schools was not fully operational.

This has left parents facing an impossible decision.

A parent considering whether to keep a child at Francis Patton through Year 8 had no finalised, published Year 9 destination under the new system. Meanwhile, the traditional middle-school pathway into senior school remained known and familiar.

Any responsible parent would choose certainty over ambiguity.

The minister then used the resulting low Year 7 and 8 enrolment figures at parish primary schools as evidence that the reform itself lacked support. In plain English, uncertainty around the plan for education gave parents occasion to be cautious with their support. So, the “reformed” two-tier system has never been fully implemented from beginning to end. Bermuda, therefore, does not actually know whether it works.

That distinction matters. The leadership crisis surrounding the reform only deepens the instability.

The system has already endured years of retirements, resignations and acting appointments. The department acknowledged significant leadership turnover as early as 2020. By September 2025, the minister herself publicly referenced schools previously led by acting principals due to "reassignments, resignations and retirements".

A second wave is now unfolding, with pension reform and changes coming in March-April 2027. At the same time, the 2026 Budget reduced the paraprofessional allocation by $475,000 and cut the autism unit by $185,000, despite growing concerns around behavioural and learning support needs in classrooms.

The local change agents supporting transformation schools have not had their contracts renewed.

The overseas consultancy has departed after receiving more than $8.4 million in public funds, yet the locally sustained succession structure it was meant to help build has not been publicly demonstrated.

So, who is implementing the reform now? And which reform are they implementing?

Because the broader pattern increasingly looks less like strategic adjustment and more like institutional drift.

The public have repeatedly asked for baseline performance data. Graduation rates have not been consistently published. Questions remain around IGCSE outcomes, City & Guilds certification targets and longitudinal enrolment trends.

The Opposition has called for audits. The Free Democratic Movement has called for public data. The BUT has repeatedly called for meaningful consultation.

Still, teachers preparing lesson plans for next year do not know which initiatives remain active, which are paused and which are effectively dead.

Standards-based grading. Signature learning. Plan 2022. Workforce pathways. School transformation. Which of these remains government policy? No one seems willing to say clearly.

Meanwhile, schools already mid-transformation remain trapped between models. Some classrooms are collapsed across year levels. Some teachers are simultaneously delivering two curriculums to two cohorts. Some school buildings now operate with fewer than 70 students — precisely the inefficiencies reform originally sought to solve.

The original transformation agenda was intended to address declining enrolment, ageing infrastructure, staffing shortages, unequal resource access and the financial impossibility of modernising every underutilised building simultaneously.

Instead, Bermuda now appears to be carrying the cost of both systems at once.

At the same time, it is notable that the minister has been able to engage in a school-level disciplinary matter, while the broader strategic framework for the education system remains undefined and still in development.

The prevailing pattern is not reform. The prevailing pattern is inertia dressed up as deliberation.

The public deserve better than ambiguity. And there are straightforward steps the Government can take immediately.

Publish the plan – not another statement, but a full document identifying what remains, what has been paused, what has been abandoned, who owns each decision and when consultation will occur.

Publish the data – graduation rates, enrolment trends, certification outcomes, transition data and performance baselines.

Use the consultation structures that already exist – the collaborators who have been trusted with the work up until now. Teachers and parents are not obstacles to reform; they are the people expected to carry it and, until recently, were highly engaged partners in the process. Use the consultation structures that already exist.

And, finally: make the financial side of this public-school reform transparent. Why did we pay more than $8.4 million to overseas consultants? What was delivered? What intellectual property belongs to Bermuda? What local capability was successfully transferred and how is that local, on the ground talent specifically charting the course of education reform now?

The public deserve an end-of-engagement report at minimum.

• Dante Cooper is the general secretary of the Bermuda Union of Teachers