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Finance Minister banks on low interest rates with Govt’s three year borrowing window

(Photo by David Skinner) ¬ Borrowing time: Minister of Finance Bob

The House of Assembly approved a bill covering three years of Government’s operating deficits to the tune of up to $800 million.Tabled by Finance Minister Bob Richards, the Bermuda Government Loans Amendment (No 2) Act prompted Progressive Labour Party head Marc Bean to pledge Opposition support, with a focus on building Bermuda’s economy.Mr Bean chastised Government for lacking “self confidence” in turning Bermuda’s economy around.But the Minister was confident the last phase of “the ultra low US dollar interest rate cycle” had arrived.“As the US economy gains strength, the US dollar interest rates and therefore bond yields and borrowing costs are likely to rise,” said Mr Richards.“Borrowing three years worth of deficits now will save the Government tens of millions of dollars in interest costs. This will give us certainty of financing as well.“Instead of borrowing on a year-to-year basis in the rising interest rate market, we will be locking in three year rates at low interest rates.”He also disclosed that JP Morgan and Barclays were selected to manage “the issuance of this debt”, in addition to local banking institutions.As for the debt ceiling and the new debt rules recently enacted he said: “No we’re not breaking our own rules.“Public debt is defined by simple formula, gross debt outstanding minus money in the sinking fund.“Excess funds borrowed that are not required for the current year will be deposited in the sinking fund, thereby reducing Government’s net debt position. This means that the public debt as defined, will only rise by one year’s worth of deficits.“We will take money out of the sinking fund as needed to finance the deficit in future years. The money placed in the sinking fund from this bond issue will be prudently invested until it is needed.“One thing we do know is that interest rates are not going down. Saving that kind of money reduces the debt.“We must all accept that the debt will not be reduced overnight. It wasn’t created overnight so it won’t be reduced overnight.“This money we would have had to have borrowed anyway. It is only a question of timing, we choose now because we have the advantage,” said the Minister.“The proposed borrowing strategy is sensible and provides certainty of future borrowing,” he said.But Shadow Finance Minister David Burt expressed concern that the Government was asking for approval with “minimal plans, detail or ideas”.He wanted to know if the Minister believed he would balance the budget in five years and whether he expected “to earn more on the investment than the interest rate on the $800 million bond offering”.The move he said posed “and inherent level of risk” and he wanted to know “who precisely is going to be managing these funds”.“If the investment goes bad we need to know who the Bermudian people should hold responsible. What this is doing is basically giving the Minister the license to gamble with public funds,” said Mr Burt.The Minister called for a point of order and accused the PLP MP of misleading the House. “That is an absurdity that’s not even worth mentioning other than to say it’s ridiculous.”Mr Burt continued and said: “Nobody has a crystal ball and can determine what is going to happen in the future.“The Minister is taking a bet and there is a valid question as to whether or not this bet will pay off.“It is our hope of course that the Government does not lose money and the bet pays off for the people of Bermuda; but we must be clear that this is a bet.”Tourism Minister Shawn Crockwell countered: “The only way you can start to pay off the debt, elementary accounting, you’ve got to start making some profits.“This Government inherited a $300 million deficit. We’ve got to figure out how we can balance the budget so we can end up having a surplus to start paying off the debt,” he said.He noted that when Mr Richards was the Shadow Minister “he had a crystal ball because he was right”.“He told the Government of the day you’re heading on the wrong path, he told them trim your sails, you’re budgeting is off, he advised them what to do. And we ended up just where he forecast,” said Mr Crockwell.Mr Burt called for a point of order and said the Minister of Finance at the time said “the economy was getting bad and that the global recession was oncoming”.Opposition leader Marc Bean offered a conciliatory approach.“The decisions that have to be made today, have to be made as a result of previous decisions.”He echoed the Shadow Minister’s concerns that Mr Richards was taking a gamble, based on the assumption that interest rates would rise.Mr Bean voiced scepticism for a rebound in the US economy, adding: “I’ve been hearing that over the last two or three years.”He also accused the One Bermuda Alliance of having only two approaches: raising Government revenue or cutting expenditure.“It reveals the OBA government lack self-confidence in their ability to turn this situation around,” Mr Bean said.He concluded: “For our part, we will do all we can to work with the Minister and the Premier to share ideas that will bring revenue.”Mr Richards thanked Mr Bean, but said the PLP’s stewardship of Government had left them discredited.Bermuda needed inward foreign investment, he said, especially in tourism, because “there is no money in Bermuda”.He dismissed the accusation that Government was “taking a bet” as “a non-point”, adding: “One thing you learn in the investment business is, no matter what you do — you’re taking a bet. ”