Heatwaves, drought and heavy rainfall are being forecast globally for the 2026 El Niño, but there is likely to be a reduction in Atlantic hurricanes as intense Pacific typhoons and heavy precipitation cross California.

That is the conclusion of catastrophe modelling specialists Karen Clark & Company, laid out in a white paper on the projected 2026 El Niño event and its broad influence on global climate systems.

The report concludes: “The current outlook points to a strong El Niño persisting into 2027, which historically implies reduced Atlantic hurricane activity alongside notable shifts in global weather patterns.

“In the US, this may mean a quieter hurricane season, wetter conditions in the West, a snowier winter in the Northeast, and increased severe convective storm activity along the Gulf and Southeast coasts in the spring.

“At the same time, the Northwest Pacific may experience longer-lived and more intense tropical cyclones, while Australia and Indonesia may see more drought and higher wildfire risk through at least January 2027.

“While there is correlation between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and property losses over the long run, which is incorporated into the KCC models, Enso has relatively little predictive power for a given year.

“For example, it would take only one major hurricane striking Miami, Tampa, or Houston to cause insured losses exceeding $100 billion today and that can happen in any year.

“Similarly, although El Niño years are generally associated with lower fire activity, one large fire impacting Los Angeles or another highly populated area could cause losses on par with the Palisades and Eaton Fires.

“The 2018 Camp Fire, at the time the costliest fire in California history, occurred during a developing El Niño.

“KCC scientists continually monitor global weather events and provide loss estimates for (re) insurers in real-time, as well as aggregate losses on a monthly and annual basis.”

Rising sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific trigger shifts in atmospheric pressure, ultimately dictating the frequency and severity of natural catastrophes

By comparing current forecasts to the record-breaking 1997-1998 event, the authors illustrate the potential for significant financial losses and environmental disruption.

The text serves as a technical guide for the insurance industry to better anticipate weather-related risks associated with this specific climate phase.

The current El Niño is likely to be extreme, with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Centre estimating a greater than 60 per cent probability of a “very strong” El Niño based on a compilation of forecasts from many different statistical and physical models.